Does Public Environmental Affect Influence the World’s Largest Electric Vehicle Market? A Big Data Analytics Study of China

The transition from combustion vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) is critical for mitigating climate change. As the global leader in the EV market, China has been propelled by government policies, market dynamics, and public awareness. As sentiment is fundamental to human communication, however, existing research lacks a systematic examination of the extent to which public environmental affect influences EV adoption at the macro level, particularly in the presence of government interventions and market strategies. To address this gap, we construct a novel affect index using a CNN deep learning model to extract environmental affect (positive, negative, and neutral) from Weibo posts between 2014 and 2023. Employing monthly EV market share as the dependent variable, we incorporate affect indices as key independent variables, alongside control variables such as government subsidy reductions, price levels, and other marketing strategies. A time-series cointegration model is applied to assess the long-term impact of environmental affect on EV sales. Empirical results reveal that only positive environmental affect has a significant and positive impact on EV adoption, whereas key industry factors, including subsidies, charger availability, patent activity, and price disparities, also play crucial roles. These findings highlight the growing influence of public awareness in shaping the EV market transition from government-driven to market-driven growth. Our study reconciles conflicting findings in prior research and provides actionable insights for policymakers and marketers seeking to foster sustainable EV adoption.