Export-Led Growth Under the Digital Economy: Evidence from China’s 31 Provinces

Under the rapid development of the digital economy, the interactive relationship between exports and the digital economy has become an important issue for promoting regional economic growth. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2012 to 2022, this paper systematically examines the impact of exports on economic growth and the moderating role of the digital economy, and it introduces research and development (R&D) investment to test its mediating mechanism. The research finds that exports significantly promote regional economic growth. The digital economy has a negative moderating effect on the export growth effect, and it is significant in the eastern region but not significant in the central and western regions, showing obvious regional heterogeneity. R&D investment has played a partial mediating role between exports and economic growth. This paper suggests that the government should focus on regional differences, promote the deep integration of the digital economy and exports, enhance technological innovation capabilities, formulate differentiated policies based on local conditions, strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure, optimize the export structure, support the development of R&D-driven enterprises, and build a digital export system that promotes regional coordination and high-quality growth, so as to achieve high-quality coordinated sustainable regional development. This paper also has certain reference value for other developing economies, in promoting the integration of the digital economy and trade.