Analysis of the Spatial–Temporal Characteristics, Regional Differences, and Obstacle Factors of Agricultural Modernization Development in Gansu Province, China

Agricultural modernization is the key path and core strategy for the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, and it constitutes the cornerstone of China’s modernization system. Gansu Province is a typical ecologically fragile area, and a multi-ethnic province in the northwest of China. In recent years, through the application of efficient water-saving technologies, the industrialization of characteristic agriculture and institutional innovation, it has initially achieved the coordinated increase in production and ecological benefits. However, the lagging infrastructure and low efficiency of factor allocation still restrict its systematic transformation process. Based on the panel data of 14 prefectures and cities in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2022, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural modernization, and reveals the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province. Further, this paper combines the Theil index and the obstacle degree model to analyze the regional differences and development bottlenecks of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province. The research finds that the overall level of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province has improved but is still in a stage of continuous development. Spatially, the western and central regions have a higher level of development, while the southern region is relatively lower. The time series analysis results show that the overall regional differences in agricultural modernization in Gansu Province have narrowed. From 2013 to 2018, the differences within the regions were dominant; after 2018, they were jointly affected by both within-region and between-region differences. The results of the obstacle factor analysis show that the modernization of agricultural industrial operation is the main obstacle factor, followed by the green modernization of agriculture. Based on these findings, this paper proposes suggestions such as strengthening regional coordination, enhancing production and operation capabilities, and promoting ecological construction. It is expected that, through the continuous development of the level of agricultural modernization, the coordinated development of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province can be promoted, and further, the well-being of the people can be enhanced, and the rural revitalization strategy can be advanced in depth.