A Study on the Intergenerational Distribution of Ecological Values of Cultivated Land: A Case of Lezhi County, China

The ecological value of cultivated land carries clear intergenerational implications, requiring a fair allocation mechanism across the full life cycle to address market failures caused by intergenerational externalities. This study constructs an intergenerational allocation model of cultivated land ecological value based on the Diamond framework. The intra-generational consumption elasticity coefficient is derived using the Tapio decoupling theory, with the ratio of cultivated land quantity change to per capita net income change as the core indicator. Statistical data from Lezhi County (1984–2022) are used for empirical analysis. The fitted elasticity coefficient shows a steady decline and eventually converges to zero, indicating a weakening willingness of the current generation to consume ecological value, thus supporting the logic of preserving value for future generations. A simplified Pearl growth curve is then used to construct the development stage coefficient, representing the evolving realization of ecological value among future generations. Engel coefficient forecasts based on the GM(1,1) model enable year-by-year estimation of ecological value allocation to future generations. The results show that (1) the ecological value of cultivated land in Lezhi County is estimated at CNY 65,498,230/ha, (2) the proposed model effectively simulates intergenerational value allocation, (3) decoupling theory supports the hypothesis of equal intergenerational sharing, and (4) the development stage coefficient curve provides a dynamic perspective on long-term ecological value realization. This research offers a data-driven modeling approach that enhances both the fairness and the efficiency of land governance, contributing methodological support for sustainable cultivated land protection and ecological compensation policies.