Quantifying the Influence of Market Concentration on Maritime Freight Rates for Sustainable Transport: A Case Study of the Asia–North America Container Route

The determination of freight rates in liner shipping is influenced by the market dynamics and the strategic decisions of shipping alliances. This study investigates the effect of non-alliance tonnage on freight rates along the Asia–North America West Coast route, employing a quantile regression method. A dataset covering July 2021 to June 2023 was used, with bunker prices and the Dow Jones Index serving as control variables. The results reveal that the non-alliance share has a significant and negative impact on lower quantiles, suggesting that enhanced competition reduces freight rates when the prices are low. In contrast, this effect disappears at higher freight levels. Bunker prices and the stock market index also exhibit varying effects, depending on the quantile, with demand-side variables being more influential during low-freight conditions. These findings suggest that market concentration affects price-setting power, and quantile-based approaches offer deeper insights into these complex relationships than linear models. These insights contribute to the sustainable development of maritime transport by promoting fair competition, improving pricing transparency, and supporting efficient policy interventions in global liner shipping.