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Navigating Time: A Comparative Analysis of Senior Tourists’ Intentions and Length of Stay in Italy Pre-, during, and Post-COVID-19

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  • Maria Gabriella Campolo

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, Via dei Verdi, 75, 98122 Messina, Italy)

  • Carlo Giannetto

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, Via dei Verdi, 75, 98122 Messina, Italy)

  • Maurizio Lanfranchi

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, Via dei Verdi, 75, 98122 Messina, Italy)

  • Angelina De Pascale

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, Via dei Verdi, 75, 98122 Messina, Italy)

Abstract

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic led to a rapid global health crisis, which shocked the tourism industry by closing borders and reducing tourism demand. This study aims to analyze the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on senior Italian tourism. If, on the one hand, seniors represent, from a tourism perspective, one of the most promising markets for the near future; on the other hand, they are the population that has most suffered the consequences of the pandemic event. Drawing on national statistical data, this study examines the impact of COVID-19 on the holiday intentions and length of stay of senior Italian tourists in Italy. The proposed methodological approach evaluates both travel intentions and length of stay by comparing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. It breaks down the decision-making process into two phases (to go on holiday or not, and length of stay) and is based on the estimation of a probit model with sample selection, which provides a more accurate approach to addressing the complex decision-making dynamics surrounding travel during pandemic periods, offering greater precision in modeling the factors influencing travel intention and length of stay. The results show a strong correlation between the decision to travel and the length of stay in the period before the pandemic. However, during the post-pandemic period there is a change in dynamics, where other factors gain importance in determining the length of stay regardless of the decision to travel.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Gabriella Campolo & Carlo Giannetto & Maurizio Lanfranchi & Angelina De Pascale, 2024. "Navigating Time: A Comparative Analysis of Senior Tourists’ Intentions and Length of Stay in Italy Pre-, during, and Post-COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:1067-:d:1326961
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ritchie, Brent W. & Jiang, Yawei, 2019. "A review of research on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management: Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. James Heckman, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    3. Chang-Young Jeon & Hee-Won Yang, 2021. "The structural changes of a local tourism network: comparison of before and after COVID-19," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(23), pages 3324-3338, December.
    4. Van de Ven, Wynand P. M. M. & Van Praag, Bernard M. S., 1981. "The demand for deductibles in private health insurance : A probit model with sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-252, November.
    5. Thanos Mergoupis & Max Steuer, 2003. "Holiday taking and income," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-284.
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