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Study on the Mechanism of Safety Risk Propagation in Subway Construction Projects

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  • Yuanwen Han

    (Management Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
    College of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Jiang Shen

    (Management Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Xuwei Zhu

    (Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China)

  • Bang An

    (Management Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Fusheng Liu

    (Management Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Xueying Bao

    (College of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

Under the development trend of complexity and systematization of metro construction, there is an increasing number of risk factors potentially affecting construction safety, which has led to frequent accidents in metro construction projects, and the road to high-quality and sustainable development of metro construction is full of challenges. One of the essential reasons is that the propagation mechanism of safety risk factors in metro construction under hidden and delayed effects is not yet clear. This paper combines the theory of complex network and propagation dynamics and constructs a subway construction safety risk propagation model based on considering the hidden and delayed characteristics of construction safety risk propagation, which reveals the dynamic propagation law of subway construction safety risk and puts forward feasible coping strategies. The findings evince that the delay time T significantly affects the propagation behavior of risk and the achievement of the equilibrium state in the network. The transmissibility of the risk factor within the hidden state holds a pivotal sway over the entirety of risk propagation, and the latency in transmission significantly expedites the propagation of risk throughout the network. It is recommended that project managers monitor and warn safety state nodes and hidden state nodes to block the spread of risk in the network and control the delay time of risk in the network in time to reduce the probability of risk occurrence. This study significantly promotes the resilient management of safety risks in metro construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanwen Han & Jiang Shen & Xuwei Zhu & Bang An & Fusheng Liu & Xueying Bao, 2024. "Study on the Mechanism of Safety Risk Propagation in Subway Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-27, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:796-:d:1320779
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Chao & Marle, Franck & Zio, Enrico & Bocquet, Jean-Claude, 2012. "Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Ming Fang & Yi Zhang & Mengjue Zhu & Shaopei Chen, 2022. "Cause Mechanism of Metro Collapse Accident Based on Risk Coupling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Zhang, Mingli & Qin, Simeng & Zhu, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Information diffusion under public crisis in BA scale-free network based on SEIR model — Taking COVID-19 as an example," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Yuanwen & Shen, Jiang & Zhu, Xuwei & Bao, Xueying, 2025. "Two-stage propagation analysis of safety risks in complex underground engineering: An integrated modeling framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).

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