Early Urban Migration and Long-Term Settlement Intention: Evidence from Migrants in China

In recent years, with the further advancement of China’s urbanization process and the continued expansion of its migrants, increasing attention has been directed toward migrants’ intentions to settle and their integration into host cities. However, the role of early urban experiences on migrants’ long-term residence intention remains unclear. Using data from the Chinese Migrant Dynamics Monitoring Survey, we examine the impact of age at first migration on the long-term settlement intention of migrants in China and the underlying influencing mechanisms. We find that migrants who migrate to cities at a younger age have higher intentions to settle in cities. The mechanism analysis suggests that migrating to cities at a younger age facilitates social integration, promotes the convergence of habits and improves dialect proficiency. Moreover, a heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effects of early city migration on long-term settlement intentions are more pronounced among migrants who migrate less frequently, are unmarried and have resided in the local area for a longer period. Further study shows that early migration to cities also positively impacts the settlement intention involving the transfer of one’s household registration (hukou) status.