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The Dynamic Relationship Between Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data

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  • Yuelin Zheng

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Mingquan Wang

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Xiaohua Ma

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Chunhua Zhu

    (School of Statistics and Data Science, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China)

  • Qibing Gao

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract

Industrial structure upgrading (ISU) plays a critical role in reducing carbon emissions (CO 2 emissions); however, the existing literature lacks dynamic research on the relationship between the two. Based on provincial panel data from China between 2002 and 2021, this paper establishes a time-varying coefficient two-way fixed-effects model to empirically explore the dynamic effects of ISU on CO 2 emissions. The findings indicate that the overall impact of China’s ISU on CO 2 emissions demonstrates a dynamic tendency of initially promoting and subsequently inhibiting such emissions and, since 2016, ISU has had the ability to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions. This time-varying trend is highly related to the evolving direction and stage of the ISU. During the initial stage of ISU, dominated by industrialization, the promotional effect is dominant in terms of CO 2 emissions, but with the development of tertiary and emerging industries, its inhibitory effect is continuously enhanced and, eventually, ISU can significantly suppress CO 2 emissions. Further, regional heterogeneity analysis shows that in the eastern and western regions of China, ISU has always inhibited CO 2 emissions, while in the central and northeastern regions, ISU first promotes and then inhibits CO 2 emissions, which is similar to the overall pattern in China. Based on these findings, relevant policy suggestions are provided to promote sustainable economic and environmental development.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuelin Zheng & Mingquan Wang & Xiaohua Ma & Chunhua Zhu & Qibing Gao, 2024. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:22:p:10118-:d:1524980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rashid Latief & Yusheng Kong & Sohail Ahmad Javeed & Usman Sattar, 2021. "Carbon Emissions in the SAARC Countries with Causal Effects of FDI, Economic Growth and Other Economic Factors: Evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Yiguo Sun & Raymond J. Carroll & Dingding Li, 2009. "Semiparametric estimation of fixed-effects panel data varying coefficient models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Nonparametric Econometric Methods, pages 101-129, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
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