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A Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Allocation of Pistachio Processing Facilities: A Case Study of Zarand, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Ebrahimi Sirizi

    (Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University Kerman Branch, Kerman 1477893855, Iran)

  • Esmaeil Taghavi Zirvani

    (Department of Urban Planning and Rural, Faculty of Social Science, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 5619911367, Iran)

  • Abdulsalam Esmailzadeh

    (Department of Social Planning, Faculty of Social Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran 1485643449, Iran)

  • Jafar Khosravian

    (Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556311, Iran)

  • Reyhaneh Ahmadi

    (Department of Regional and City Planning, Christopher C. Gibbs’s College of Architecture, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA)

  • Naeim Mijani

    (Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran 141556311, Iran)

  • Reyhaneh Soltannia

    (Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417613131, Iran
    Department of Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Tehran 1477893855, Iran)

  • Jamal Jokar Arsanjani

    (Geoinformatics Research Group, Department of Planning and Development, Aalborg University Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, DK-2450 Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract

Site selection and allocation of manufacturing and processing facilities are essential to sustainable economic productivity of a given product while preserving soil, the environment, and biodiversity. An essential criterion when evaluating various approaches to model land suitability for pistachio processing facilities is their adaptability to accommodate diverse perspectives and circumstances of managers and decision makers. Incorporating the concept of risk into the decision-making process stands as a significant research gap in modeling land suitability for pistachio processing facilities. This study presents a scenario-based multi-criteria decision-making system for modeling the land suitability of pistachio processing facilities. The model was implemented based on a stakeholder analysis as well as inclusion of a set of influential criteria and restrictions for an Iranian case study, which is among the top three producers. The weight of each criterion was determined based on the best-worst method (BWM) after the stakeholder analysis. Then, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was used to prepare maps of spatial potential for building a pistachio processing factory in different decision-making scenarios, including very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic attitudes. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of very-high- and high-potential regions to changes in the weight of the effective criteria was evaluated and proved that the most important criteria were proximity to pistachio orchards, proximity to residential areas, proximity to the road network, and proximity to industrial areas. Overall, 327 km 2 of the study area was classified as restricted, meaning that they are not suitable locations for pistachio processing. The average estimated potential values based on the proposed model for very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 0.19, 0.47, 0.63, 0.78, and 0.97, respectively. The very-high-potential class covered 0, 0.41, 8.25, 39.64, and 99.78 percent of the study area based on these scenarios, respectively. The area of suitable regions for investment decreased by increasing risk aversion in decision making. The model was more sensitive to changes in the weights of proximity to residential areas, proximity to pistachio orchards, and proximity to transportation hubs. The proposed approach and the achieved findings could be of broader use to respective stakeholders and investors. Given the suitability of arid regions for planting pistachio and its relatively high profitability, the local authorities and decision makers can promote further expansion of the orchards, which can lead to better welfare of farmers and reducing rural-urban migration in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Ebrahimi Sirizi & Esmaeil Taghavi Zirvani & Abdulsalam Esmailzadeh & Jafar Khosravian & Reyhaneh Ahmadi & Naeim Mijani & Reyhaneh Soltannia & Jamal Jokar Arsanjani, 2023. "A Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Allocation of Pistachio Processing Facilities: A Case Study of Zarand, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:20:p:15054-:d:1263152
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