Effects of Climate-Change-Related Phenomena on Coastal Ecosystems in the Mexican Caribbean

The intensity of climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems is determined by a combination of global, regional, and local drivers. However, many studies on the impact of climate change on ecosystems only consider trends associated with global changes. To assess the global, regional, and local trends, this research analyzes different climates in the coastal zone of the Mexican Caribbean. These drivers include sea level rise in synergy with tectonic activity, sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, waves and winds. Marine climate variability from 1980 to 2020 was assessed from historical records by local/governmental agencies and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. An up-to-date diagnosis of local changes of the coastal ecosystems was made, the magnitudes of change differ from the global means, which must be considered when identifying local climate change impacts. Coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, coastal dunes, sandy beaches and seagrass meadows, showed no changes consistent with geophysical drivers associated with climate change. The exception was coral reefs, where increasing SST is related to coral bleaching. Regional and local anthropic drivers or disturbances other than those related to climate change, including eutrophication, massive influxes of the brown algae Sargasso and changes in land use, induced degradation of the coastal ecosystems. Communities often do not have the capacity to cope with global climate change, but the main impacts on coastal ecosystems in the coastal zone studied were induced by regional and local drivers/disturbances that can be better managed using monitoring programmes and specific management strategies. Climate change induces pressures on coastal ecosystems that affect their functioning, physiology and species distribution; therefore, this study highlights the need to understand how climate-change-related phenomena will affect ecosystems and which geophysical drivers may have priority effects. It also highlights the importance of developing robust regional/local databases to enable stakeholders to diagnose the state of coastal ecosystems and to monitor the effectiveness of actions to prevent or reverse undesirable changes.