Revisiting Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Framework for Configurational Analysis in Chinese Cities

This paper comparatively analyzes the sufficiency and necessity of tourism’s influence on economic growth in different cities from a systematic configurational perspective. Two important time points in China’s tourism development, 2010 and 2019, are also considered in this paper to explore whether the impact of tourism on urban economic growth is temporally heterogeneous. The results demonstrate that tourism is not necessary for urban economic growth. However, the dependence on the tourism economy plays an important role in several urban economic growth patterns. Only one tourism-driven economic growth pattern exists, where tourism drives economic growth led by investment, and this pattern did not change significantly from 2010 to 2019. A tourism-driven low economic growth model also suggests that a high dependence on tourism leads to low economic growth. Two tourism-constrained low economic growth patterns exist: investment–industrial structure tourism-constrained and investment–innovation tourism-constrained. These two patterns indicate that economic growth rates are difficult to increase if the tourism economy is underdeveloped. In addition, tourism-driven or -constrained economic growth patterns have specific spatial clustering characteristics. This paper argues that tourism should actively seek foreign capital utilization and fixed asset investment, and also constantly reduce its independence and blur its industrial boundaries to better integrate or link with other industries to play its economic growth role. Furthermore, city policymakers should be fully aware of their own (tourism) resource endowment and the internal and external environment changes to choose a suitable economic growth model.