Maritime or Rail: Which of These Will Save the Planet? EU Macro-Regional Strategies and Reality

A well-thought-out strategy for shaping the transport of the future is a challenge for countries and integration groups. The answer to which modes of transport should become a priority in the context of incurred and planned investments should largely depend on their observed and forecasted environmental impact. This paper focuses on the scope and content of EU macro-regional strategies. The main objectives of the study were to identify common assumptions and differences between the Adriatic and Ionian Region and the Baltic Sea Region in terms of sustainable transport and provide a critical assessment of the EU Strategy for the Adriatic and Ionian Region (EUSAIR) and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR) compliance with the assumptions of the White Paper on Transport, as well as the attempt to answer the question of which modes of transport should be prioritized by the analyzed macro-regions, making transport decarbonization one of their main goals. It is possible to state that the assumptions of both the strategies of the macro-regions seem to be partially consistent with the White Paper on Transport vision. However, the emphasis of the macro-regions on the development of maritime transport is somewhat omitted in the White Paper. Among the countries of both areas (EUSAIR, EUSBSR), estimates showed a statistically significant ( p < 0.05) positive impact on the volume of loads transported by road transport. An increase in the volume loads by 1% resulted in an increase in air pollution by 0.446% (EUSAIR) and 0.728% (EUSBSR). The elasticity of air pollution, regarding loads’ road transport changes, was the highest compared to other transport modes in the studied areas. This proves the highest emissivity of road transport. In the EUSAIR countries, an increase by 1% of the volume of transport by railway resulted in a decrease in air pollution, with emissions of greenhouse gases decreasing by 0.063%. Considering the analyzed documentation, reports, strategies, and assumptions, it seems right to clearly emphasize the role of rail transport in the decarbonization of transport. According to the authors, mainly, this branch of transport can significantly reduce the emission of gases into the atmosphere and thus contribute to the so-called “green deal”. However, many activities must be undertaken for this to happen, not only investment ones. First of all, it is worth paying attention to the coherence of regional strategies with the European transport development plan contained in the White Paper.