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The Agricultural Economic Value of Weather Forecasting in China

Author

Listed:
  • Danna Shen

    (Institute of Meteorological Development and Planning, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Wang-Fang Shi

    (School of Economics and Management, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China)

  • Wei Tang

    (Institute of Meteorological Development and Planning, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Yan Wang

    (Institute of Meteorological Development and Planning, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Jun Liao

    (Institute of Meteorological Development and Planning, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the areas most sensitive to climate change. Extreme climate events can directly affect agricultural production and development. Based on the data from the statistical yearbooks of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2019 and the survey data of meteorological forecasting, this paper uses the fixed-effect model to empirically test the impact of meteorological forecasting on agricultural economic value. The results show that meteorological forecasting has a significant promoting effect on agricultural economic value, in that an increase in the accuracy of the meteorological forecast by one percentage point will increase agricultural economic value by 0.500 percentage points, and the results still hold after a series of robustness tests. Further study showed that there were some regional differences in the agricultural economic value of the meteorological forecasting, and the meteorological forecasting had the strongest promoting effect on the agricultural economic value of the western region, followed by the eastern region and the central region.

Suggested Citation

  • Danna Shen & Wang-Fang Shi & Wei Tang & Yan Wang & Jun Liao, 2022. "The Agricultural Economic Value of Weather Forecasting in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:24:p:17026-:d:1008044
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tesfaye, Abonesh & Hansen, James & Kassie, Girma Tesfahun & Radeny, Maren & Solomon, Dawit, 2019. "Estimating the economic value of climate services for strengthening resilience of smallholder farmers to climate risks in Ethiopia: A choice experiment approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 157-168.
    2. Mjelde, James W. & Cochran, Mark J., 1988. "Obtaining Lower And Upper Bounds On The Value Of Seasonal Climate Forecasts As A Function Of Risk Preferences," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-9, December.
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