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Assessing Energy Descent Scenarios for the Ecological Transition in Spain 2020–2030

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  • Martín Lallana

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación Mixto CIRCE, Universidad de Zaragoza-Fundación CIRCE, CIRCE Building—Campus Río Ebro, Mariano Esquillor Gómez, 15, 50018 Zaragoza, Spain)

  • Adrián Almazán

    (University Institute for Human Rights, Democracy, Culture of Peace and Nonviolence (DEMOSPAZ), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Einstein, 13, 28049 Madrid, Spain)

  • Alicia Valero

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación Mixto CIRCE, Universidad de Zaragoza-Fundación CIRCE, CIRCE Building—Campus Río Ebro, Mariano Esquillor Gómez, 15, 50018 Zaragoza, Spain)

  • Ángel Lareo

    (Computer Engineering Department, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Francisco Tomás y Valiente, 11, 28049 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

A global energy consumption reduction is essential to address the many dimensions of the current ecological crisis. In this paper we have compiled the reasons that justify the necessity to start this energy descent process in the countries of the global North, where the annual per capita final energy consumption was 118 GJ in 2017. Based on recent research, we approach the necessary redistribution of energy consumption at the global level and the elements that should be present in energy descent strategies. We establish an approximate threshold of minimum and maximum per capita final energy consumption, between 15.6 GJ and 31.0 GJ for the year 2050, which serves as a reference for evaluating scenarios. We continue with an analysis of two ecological transition scenarios for Spain between 2020 and 2030, Green New Deal and Degrowth. Based on a schematic calculation model defined in “Labor Scenarios in the Ecosocial Transition 2020–2030” report, we evaluate the variations in energy consumption for 86 sectors of economic activity. Results show an annual final energy consumption per capita in 2030 of 44.6 GJ and 36.8 GJ for each scenario. We conclude by analyzing the hypothetical main drivers of this sharp decline in energy consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Lallana & Adrián Almazán & Alicia Valero & Ángel Lareo, 2021. "Assessing Energy Descent Scenarios for the Ecological Transition in Spain 2020–2030," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-34, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:21:p:11867-:d:665795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Felipe-Andreu & Antonio Valero & Alicia Valero, 2022. "Territorial Inequalities, Ecological and Material Footprints of the Energy Transition: Case Study of the Cantabrian-Mediterranean Bioregion," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Lauer, Arthur & Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Wergles, Nathalie, 2025. "A comparative review of de- and post-growth modeling studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).

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