IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i17p4796-d263503.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road

Author

Listed:
  • Naixia Mou

    (College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
    State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yanxin Xie

    (College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China)

  • Tengfei Yang

    (Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China)

  • Hengcai Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yoo Ri Kim

    (School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7UU, UK)

Abstract

Nearly 70% of the world’s maritime crude oil transportation relies on the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). In order to deeply explore the impact of slumping oil price on the shipping situation of tanker along the MSR, this paper establishes the relationship between monthly ship and oil price through Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Distributions of cargo flow before and after the oil price slumped are compared to explore the changing law of tanker shipping situation. The study finds: (1) The correlation between the cargo flow situation of the tanker seaborne export and oil price, where the export cargo flow correlation is stronger than that of the import cargo flow. (2) The MSR tanker shipping situation is lagging (3 months) behind the impact of oil price. The lag effect in Europe, North Asia and East Asia is strong while that in Southeast Asia and South Asia is weak. (3) After the oil price slumped, the tanker shipping cargo flow increased less during the crude oil export stage, and the increase in the crude oil shipping trade after the transfer period was larger. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the decision-making ability of the crude oil shipping market and formulating maritime operations management measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Naixia Mou & Yanxin Xie & Tengfei Yang & Hengcai Zhang & Yoo Ri Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4796-:d:263503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/17/4796/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/17/4796/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, June.
    2. Hao, Xiaoqing & An, Haizhong & Qi, Hai & Gao, Xiangyun, 2016. "Evolution of the exergy flow network embodied in the global fossil energy trade: Based on complex network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1515-1522.
    3. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    4. Naixia Mou & Caixia Liu & Lingxian Zhang & Xin Fu & Yichun Xie & Yong Li & Peng Peng, 2018. "Spatial Pattern and Regional Relevance Analysis of the Maritime Silk Road Shipping Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Oladosu, Gbadebo A. & Leiby, Paul N. & Bowman, David C. & Uría-Martínez, Rocio & Johnson, Megan M., 2018. "Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 523-544.
    6. Ducruet, César, 2017. "Multilayer dynamics of complex spatial networks: The case of global maritime flows (1977–2008)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-58.
    7. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    8. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
    9. Wenming Shi & Zhongzhi Yang & Kevin X. Li, 2013. "The impact of crude oil price on the tanker market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 309-322, July.
    10. Hongchu Yu & Zhixiang Fang & Guojun Peng & Mingxiang Feng, 2017. "Revealing the Linkage Network Dynamic Structures of Chinese Maritime Ports through Automatic Information System Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Altinay, Galip, 2007. "Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5829-5835, November.
    12. Kolodzeij, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert.K., 2014. "Oil demand shocks reconsidered: A cointegrated vector autoregression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 33-40.
    13. Huiming Zhu & Xianfang Su & Yawei Guo & Yinghua Ren, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xun & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Asymmetric pass-through of oil prices to gasoline prices with interval time series modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-173.
    15. Pablo Cansado-Bravo & Carlos Rodríguez-Monroy, 2018. "Persistence of Oil Prices in Gas Import Prices and the Resilience of the Oil-Indexation Mechanism. The Case of Spanish Gas Import Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Liehui Wang & Yan Zhu & Cesar Ducruet & Mattia Bunel & Yui-yip Lau, 2018. "From hierarchy to networking: the evolution of the “twenty-first-century Maritime Silk Road” container shipping system," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 416-435, July.
    17. Yu, Hongchu & Fang, Zhixiang & Lu, Feng & Murray, Alan T. & Zhang, Hengcai & Peng, Peng & Mei, Qiang & Chen, Jinhai, 2019. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 390-403.
    18. Bai, Shuming & Koong, Kai S., 2018. "Oil prices, stock returns, and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-33.
    19. Zhang, Chuanguo & Liu, Feng & Yu, Danlin, 2018. "Dynamic jumps in global oil price and its impacts on China's bulk commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 297-306.
    20. Li, Tingyi & Xue, Leyang & Chen, Yu & Chen, Feier & Miao, Yuqi & Shao, Xinzeng & Zhang, Chenyi, 2018. "Insights from multifractality analysis of tanker freight market volatility with common external factor of crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 374-384.
    21. Guo, Yanfeng & Wen, Xiaoqian & Wu, Yanrui & Guo, Xiumei, 2016. "How is China's coke price related with the world oil price? The role of extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 22-33.
    22. Guan, Qing & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Li, Huajiao, 2016. "Estimating potential trade links in the international crude oil trade: A link prediction approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 406-415.
    23. Wang, Minggang & Tian, Lixin & Du, Ruijin, 2016. "Research on the interaction patterns among the global crude oil import dependency countries: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 779-791.
    24. Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
    25. Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Yushu Li & Ghazi Shukur, 2018. "The Causal Nexus between Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Unemployment in Norway Using Wavelet Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, August.
    26. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    27. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
    28. D Ronen, 2011. "The effect of oil price on containership speed and fleet size," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(1), pages 211-216, January.
    29. Chen, Feier & Miao, Yuqi & Tian, Kang & Ding, Xiaoxu & Li, Tingyi, 2017. "Multifractal cross-correlations between crude oil and tanker freight rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 344-354.
    30. Jian Chai & Puju Cao & Xiaoyang Zhou & Kin Keung Lai & Xiaofeng Chen & Siping (Sue) Su, 2018. "The Conductive and Predictive Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on China’s Industry Development Based on Mixed-Frequency Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, May.
    31. Peng, Peng & Yang, Yu & Cheng, Shifen & Lu, Feng & Yuan, Zimu, 2019. "Hub-and-spoke structure: Characterizing the global crude oil transport network with mass vessel trajectories," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 966-974.
    32. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    33. Ruan, Qingsong & Wang, Yao & Lu, Xinsheng & Qin, Jing, 2016. "Cross-correlations between Baltic Dry Index and crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 278-289.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sugra Humbatova & Mubariz Mammadli & Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Mou, Naixia & Wang, Chunying & Yang, Tengfei & Ren, Haonan & Zhang, Lingxian & Xu, Huanqing & Liu, Wenbao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal patterns of maritime trade between China and Maritime Silk Road: Evidence from a quantitative study using social network analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Mou, Naixia & Wang, Chunying & Yang, Tengfei & Ren, Haonan & Zhang, Lingxian & Xu, Huanqing & Liu, Wenbao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal patterns of maritime trade between China and Maritime Silk Road: Evidence from a quantitative study using social network analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Yu, Hongchu & Fang, Zhixiang & Lu, Feng & Murray, Alan T. & Zhang, Hengcai & Peng, Peng & Mei, Qiang & Chen, Jinhai, 2019. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 390-403.
    4. Nicanor García Álvarez & Belarmino Adenso-Díaz & Laura Calzada-Infante, 2021. "Maritime Traffic as a Complex Network: a Systematic Review," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 387-417, June.
    5. César Ducruet, 2020. "The geography of maritime networks: A critical review," Post-Print halshs-02922543, HAL.
    6. Peng, Peng & Yang, Yu & Cheng, Shifen & Lu, Feng & Yuan, Zimu, 2019. "Hub-and-spoke structure: Characterizing the global crude oil transport network with mass vessel trajectories," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 966-974.
    7. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Assessing the extreme risk spillovers of international commodities on maritime markets: A GARCH-Copula-CoVaR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2021. "Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. Liu, Feng & Zhang, Chuanguo & Tang, Mengying, 2021. "The impacts of oil price shocks and jumps on China's nonferrous metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Ducruet, César, 2020. "The geography of maritime networks: A critical review," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Meng, Juan & Nie, He & Mo, Bin & Jiang, Yonghong, 2020. "Risk spillover effects from global crude oil market to China’s commodity sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    12. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sugra Humbatova & Mubariz Mammadli & Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, March.
    13. Shi, Wenming & Gong, Yuting & Yin, Jingbo & Nguyen, Son & Liu, Qian, 2022. "Determinants of dynamic dependence between the crude oil and tanker freight markets: A mixed-frequency data sampling copula model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    14. Peng, Peng & Yang, Yu & Lu, Feng & Cheng, Shifen & Mou, Naixia & Yang, Ren, 2018. "Modelling the competitiveness of the ports along the Maritime Silk Road with big data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 852-867.
    15. Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "A dynamic quantile regression model for the relationship between oil price and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    16. Xuanru Zhou & Hua Zhang & Shuxian Zheng & Wanli Xing & Pei Zhao & Haiying Li, 2022. "The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, March.
    17. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    19. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 473-479.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4796-:d:263503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.