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Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari

    () (Watershed Engineering and Science, Qeshm Campus, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas 7916193145, Iran)

  • Ommolbanin Bazrafshan

    () (Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas 7916193145, Iran)

  • Thomas Panagopoulos

    () (Research Center for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics (CIEO), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005 Faro, Portugal)

  • Elham Rafiei Sardooi

    () (Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Kerman 7867161167, Iran)

Abstract

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha −1 h −1 y −1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha −1 y −1 , which will generate 5.52 t ha −1 y −1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha −1 year −1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Thomas Panagopoulos & Elham Rafiei Sardooi, 2019. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:12:p:3353-:d:240602
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pheerawat Plangoen & Mukand Singh Babel & Roberto S. Clemente & Sangam Shrestha & Nitin Kumar Tripathi, 2013. "Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(8), pages 1-31, July.
    2. Iraj Emadodin & Daiju Narita & Hans Bork, 2012. "Soil degradation and agricultural sustainability: an overview from Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(5), pages 611-625, October.
    3. repec:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:20:p:3761-3772 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. I. Gaubi & A. Chaabani & A. Ben Mammou & M. H. Hamza, 2017. "A GIS-based soil erosion prediction using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) (Lebna watershed, Cap Bon, Tunisia)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 219-239, March.
    5. repec:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2006-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Vera Ferreira & André Samora-Arvela & Thomas Panagopoulos, 2016. "Soil erosion vulnerability under scenarios of climate land-use changes after the development of a large reservoir in a semi-arid area," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(7), pages 1238-1256, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land degradation; rainfall erosivity; soil cover; reservoir; watershed management;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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