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Predicting Motor Insurance Claims Using Telematics Data—XGBoost versus Logistic Regression

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  • Jessica Pesantez-Narvaez

    (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Montserrat Guillen

    (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Manuela Alcañiz

    (Department of Econometrics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

XGBoost is recognized as an algorithm with exceptional predictive capacity. Models for a binary response indicating the existence of accident claims versus no claims can be used to identify the determinants of traffic accidents. This study compared the relative performances of logistic regression and XGBoost approaches for predicting the existence of accident claims using telematics data. The dataset contained information from an insurance company about the individuals’ driving patterns—including total annual distance driven and percentage of total distance driven in urban areas. Our findings showed that logistic regression is a suitable model given its interpretability and good predictive capacity. XGBoost requires numerous model-tuning procedures to match the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and greater effort as regards to interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Pesantez-Narvaez & Montserrat Guillen & Manuela Alcañiz, 2019. "Predicting Motor Insurance Claims Using Telematics Data—XGBoost versus Logistic Regression," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:70-:d:241617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jessica Pesantez-Narvaez & Montserrat Guillen & Manuela Alcañiz, 2021. "A Synthetic Penalized Logitboost to Model Mortgage Lending with Imbalanced Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 281-309, January.
    2. Francis Duval & Jean‐Philippe Boucher & Mathieu Pigeon, 2023. "Enhancing claim classification with feature extraction from anomaly‐detection‐derived routine and peculiarity profiles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 421-458, June.
    3. Zhiyu Quan & Changyue Hu & Panyi Dong & Emiliano A. Valdez, 2024. "Improving Business Insurance Loss Models by Leveraging InsurTech Innovation," Papers 2401.16723, arXiv.org.
    4. Nelson Kemboi Yego & Juma Kasozi & Joseph Nkurunziza, 2021. "A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Insurance Uptake in Kenya," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Thomas Poufinas & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Emmanouil Zaganidis, 2023. "Machine Learning in Forecasting Motor Insurance Claims," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Viktor Stojkoski & Petar Jolakoski & Igor Ivanovski, 2021. "The short‐run impact of COVID‐19 on the activity in the insurance industry in the Republic of North Macedonia," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 221-242, September.
    7. Meng, Shengwang & Gao, Yaqian & Huang, Yifan, 2022. "Actuarial intelligence in auto insurance: Claim frequency modeling with driving behavior features and improved boosted trees," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 115-127.
    8. Trufin, Julien & Denuit, Michel, 2021. "Boosting cost-complexity pruned trees On Tweedie responses: the ABT machine," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2021015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. Nemanja Milanović & Miloš Milosavljević & Slađana Benković & Dušan Starčević & Željko Spasenić, 2020. "An Acceptance Approach for Novel Technologies in Car Insurance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Zuleyka Díaz Martínez & José Fernández Menéndez & Luis Javier García Villalba, 2023. "Tariff Analysis in Automobile Insurance: Is It Time to Switch from Generalized Linear Models to Generalized Additive Models?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    11. Jessica Pesantez-Narvaez & Montserrat Guillen & Manuela Alcañiz, 2021. "RiskLogitboost Regression for Rare Events in Binary Response: An Econometric Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, March.

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