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The short-run impact of COVID-19 on the activity in the insurance industry in the Republic of North Macedonia

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  • Viktor Stojkoski
  • Petar Jolakoski
  • Igor Ivanovski

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the insurance industry in the Republic of North Macedonia during the first half of 2020. By utilizing seasonal autoregressive models and data for 11 insurance classes, we find that the insurance activity shrank by more than 10% compared to what was expected. The total loss in the industry was, however, much less than the amount of funds made available by the Insurance Supervision Agency. This was because the pandemic induced changes in the activity structure - the share of Motor vehicles class fell at the expense of the property classes.

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  • Viktor Stojkoski & Petar Jolakoski & Igor Ivanovski, 2020. "The short-run impact of COVID-19 on the activity in the insurance industry in the Republic of North Macedonia," Papers 2011.10826, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2011.10826
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cummins, J. David & Griepentrog, Gary L., 1985. "Forecasting automobile insurance paid claim costs using econometric and ARIMA models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 203-215.
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    5. Michael McAleer, 2020. "Prevention Is Better Than the Cure: Risk Management of COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-5, March.
    6. Hassan Mohammadi & Daniel Rich, 2013. "Dynamics of Unemployment Insurance Claims: An Application of ARIMA-GARCH Models," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 413-425, December.
    7. Andreas Richter & Thomas C. Wilson, 2020. "Covid-19: implications for insurer risk management and the insurability of pandemic risk," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 171-199, September.
    8. Christian Thomann, 2013. "The Impact of Catastrophes on Insurer Stock Volatility," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 65-94, March.
    9. Liang Hong & Ryan Martin, 2017. "A Flexible Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Predicting Future Insurance Claims," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 228-241, April.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2021. "Determinants of budget deficits: Focus on the effects from the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2105.14959, arXiv.org.
    2. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2022. "Determinants Of Budget Deficits: The Effects Of The Covid-19 Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(232), pages 105-126, January –.

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