IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jpubli/v13y2025i1p6-d1585557.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the Scientific Production Volumes of G7 and BRICS Countries in a Comparative Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tindaro Cicero

    (Department of Engineering and Science, Universitas Mercatorum, 00186 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

This study applies ARIMA models to forecast scientific production trends among G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries using Scopus data from 1996 to 2023. The analysis shows that G7 countries maintain steady growth driven by established research infrastructures, while BRICS nations, particularly China, display accelerated growth due to substantial investments in R&D. The forecasts indicate that China could reach over 2,000,000 indexed scientific publications annually by 2030, potentially reshaping the global research landscape. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and research institutions, highlighting the shifting dynamics of global scientific leadership and emphasizing the importance of sustained investment in research to remain competitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Tindaro Cicero, 2025. "Forecasting the Scientific Production Volumes of G7 and BRICS Countries in a Comparative Analysis," Publications, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jpubli:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:6-:d:1585557
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2304-6775/13/1/6/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2304-6775/13/1/6/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aithal, Sreeramana & Aithal, Shubhrajyotsna, 2020. "Implementation Strategies of Higher Education Part of National Education Policy 2020 of India towards Achieving its Objectives," MPRA Paper 104475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Furman, Jeffrey L. & Porter, Michael E. & Stern, Scott, 2002. "The determinants of national innovative capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 899-933, August.
    3. Marcus Wagner & Stefan Schaltegger & Erik G. Hansen & Klaus Fichter, 2021. "University-linked programmes for sustainable entrepreneurship and regional development: how and with what impact?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1141-1158, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumar, Sanjesh & Singh, Baljeet, 2019. "Barriers to the international diffusion of technological innovations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 74-86.
    2. Manpreet Rajpal & Bindu Singh, 2024. "How to drive sustainable entrepreneurial intentions: Unraveling the nexus of entrepreneurship education ecosystem, attitude and orientation," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 1705-1721, May.
    3. Arie Y Lewin & Silvia Massini & Carine Peeters, 2020. "Absorptive capacity, socially enabling mechanisms, and the role of learning from trial and error experiments: A tribute to Dan Levinthal’s contribution to international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 51(9), pages 1568-1579, December.
    4. Anil K. Gupta & Paul E. Tesluk & M. Susan Taylor, 2007. "Innovation At and Across Multiple Levels of Analysis," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(6), pages 885-897, December.
    5. Hunt, Jennifer & Garant, Jean-Philippe & Herman, Hannah & Munroe, David J., 2012. "Why Don't Women Patent?," IZA Discussion Papers 6886, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    7. Lin, Jenny X. & Lincoln, William F., 2017. "Pirate's treasure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 235-245.
    8. Kuckertz, Andreas & Scheu, Maximilian, 2024. "From chalkboard to boardroom: Unveiling the role of entrepreneurship in bolstering academic achievement among professors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    9. Krammer, Sorin M.S., 2022. "Human resource policies and firm innovation: The moderating effects of economic and institutional context," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Edquist , Charles & Zabala-Iturriagagoitia , Jon Mikel, 2015. "The Innovation Union Scoreboard is flawed: The Case of Sweden – not the innovation leader of the EU – updated version," Papers in Innovation Studies 2015/27, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    11. Kancs, d’Artis & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2016. "R&D and non-linear productivity growth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 634-646.
    12. Yawei Qi & Wenxiang Peng & Neal N. Xiong, 2020. "The Effects of Fiscal and Tax Incentives on Regional Innovation Capability: Text Extraction Based on Python," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-19, July.
    13. Uyar, Ali & Bani-Mustafa, Ahmed & Nimer, Khalil & Schneider, Friedrich & Hasnaoui, Amir, 2021. "Does innovation capacity reduce tax evasion? Moderating effect of intellectual property rights," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    14. Aaron Chatterji & Edward Glaeser & William Kerr, 2014. "Clusters of Entrepreneurship and Innovation," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 129-166.
    15. Monica Violeta Achim & Alexandra Ioana Daniela Rus & Nawazish Mirza, 2024. "How does intellectual capital spur innovation in economy? A cross-country survey," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 3125-3154, December.
    16. Khoury, Theodore A. & Peng, Mike W., 2011. "Does institutional reform of intellectual property rights lead to more inbound FDI? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 337-345, July.
    17. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2013. "The dynamics of national innovation systems: A panel cointegration analysis of the coevolution between innovative capability and absorptive capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 579-594.
    18. Weinhold, Diana & Nair-Reichert, Usha, 2009. "Innovation, Inequality and Intellectual Property Rights," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 889-901, May.
    19. Swati Mehta, 2018. "National Innovation System of India: An Empirical Analysis," Millennial Asia, , vol. 9(2), pages 203-224, August.
    20. Robert Huggins & Hiro Izushi, 2009. "Regional Benchmarking in a Global Context: Knowledge, Competitiveness, and Economic Development," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(4), pages 275-293, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jpubli:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:6-:d:1585557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.