Does New Infrastructure Promote the Development of Rural Industries? A Nonlinear Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from China

Whether and how new infrastructure (NI) can drive the development of rural industries (DRI) is crucial to promoting urban–rural balance and ensuring national food security. Based on panel data from Chinese provincial-level regions (2013–2022), this study constructs a comprehensive DRI evaluation system encompassing production systems, economic benefits, industrial integration, and sustainable development. Using the entropy method to measure NI development levels, we examine its heterogeneous impacts on DRI through multiple analytical dimensions. The results reveal three key findings: First, a robust “inverted U-shaped” relationship exists between NI and DRI. Second, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that (1) both eastern and western regions show this pattern while central and northeastern regions exhibit infrastructure saturation; (2) intelligent transportation infrastructure critically moderates this relationship—advanced regions achieve greater NI efficiency through digital infrastructure–transportation–industrial synergies, whereas underdeveloped regions face bottlenecks; and (3) provinces with lower population density but higher human capital show enhanced NI absorption capacity. Third, mechanism analysis confirms industrial structure upgrading and market expansion as key transmission channels. These findings suggest that implementing tiered intelligent transportation strategies, differentiated NI policies, human capital investment, and rural market expansion optimize NI’s rural development impacts.