IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i5p914-d1640237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Rural Industrial Transformation via Coupling Coordination Between Polder-Based Spatial Features and Industrial Development

Author

Listed:
  • Wenzhu Zhou

    (School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Dawei Wang

    (School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Yiwen Zhang

    (School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Hanjing Xu

    (School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

Abstract

Rural areas are undergoing a transformation, shifting from traditional agriculture to green and leisure industries, driven by urban–rural imbalances and environmental challenges. This transition, however, presents the growing conflicts between preserving spatial features and promoting industrial development. Based on the unique rural spatial typology of polders, this study integrated theories from cultural, landscape, ecological, economic, and social perspectives to construct a conceptual framework of the interactive relationship between spatial features (SFs) and industrial development (ID). Then, an evaluation index system was constructed to measure the current status of SFs and ID, using data from field surveys, satellite imagery, and 2020 yearbooks, with the Gaochun Polder District, Nanjing (China), as the case study. Next, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and a scenario analysis based on orthogonal design were applied to assess the coherence and development between SFs and ID, and to identify strategies for optimizing rural industrial development. The results show that (1) the current SFs and ID are in the break-in and basic coordination stage, with ID lagging behind SFs, and (2) the 25 scenarios generated through orthogonal design were categorized into three groups: high-level coordination with synchronization between the two systems, high-level coordination but ID lagging behind SFs, and basic coordination where ID lags behind SFs. To achieve a high-level coordination with synchronization, specific strategies were proposed to enhance agricultural input–output benefits, improve agricultural scale–quality benefits, and, overall, protect the SF system while making minor adjustments to the village dwelling subsystem. Therefore, the findings provide recommendations for traditional polder villages to optimize their rural industries while preserving the distinctive SFs of the rural cultural landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenzhu Zhou & Dawei Wang & Yiwen Zhang & Hanjing Xu, 2025. "Predicting Rural Industrial Transformation via Coupling Coordination Between Polder-Based Spatial Features and Industrial Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:914-:d:1640237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/914/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/914/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinyu Fan & Bohong Zheng & Boyang Zhang & Zongsheng Huang & Junyou Liu, 2023. "Research on the Revitalization Path of Ethnic Villages Based on the Inheritance of Spatial Cultural Genes—Taking Tujia Village of Feng Xiang Xi in Guizhou Province as a Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Zhang, Yan & Chang, Xia & Liu, Yanfang & Lu, Yanchi & Wang, Yiheng & Liu, Yaolin, 2021. "Urban expansion simulation under constraint of multiple ecosystem services (MESs) based on cellular automata (CA)-Markov model: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Jie Zheng & Lisha Na & Binglin Liu & Tiantian Zhang & Hao Wang, 2021. "An Ecological Service System Based Study on Suburban Rural Landscape Multifunction," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Jing Lv & Sijia Ge & Man Fai Leung, 2022. "Industrial Land Performance Assessment Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-11, August.
    5. Jie Yin & Xu Zhao & Wenjia Zhang & Pei Wang, 2020. "Rural Land Use Change Driven by Informal Industrialization: Evidence from Fengzhuang Village in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    7. Zou, Baoling & Mishra, Ashok K. & Luo, Biliang, 2020. "Grain subsidy, off-farm labor supply and farmland leasing: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Ge, Dazhuan & Wang, Zhihua & Tu, Shuangshuang & Long, Hualou & Yan, Huili & Sun, Dongqi & Qiao, Weifeng, 2019. "Coupling analysis of greenhouse-led farmland transition and rural transformation development in China’s traditional farming area: A case of Qingzhou City," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 113-125.
    9. Tianyi Zhao & Yuning Cheng & Yiyang Fan & Xiangnan Fan, 2022. "Functional Tradeoffs and Feature Recognition of Rural Production–Living–Ecological Spaces," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-27, July.
    10. Camelia Dewan & Aditi Mukherji & Marie-Charlotte Buisson, 2015. "Evolution of water management in coastal Bangladesh: from temporary earthen embankments to depoliticized community-managed polders," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 401-416, May.
    11. Ireneusz Laks & Zbigniew Walczak, 2020. "Efficiency of Polder Modernization for Flood Protection. Case Study of Golina Polder (Poland)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Daizhong Tang & Mengyuan Mao & Jiangang Shi & Wenwen Hua, 2021. "The Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban-Rural Coordinated Development and Its Driving Forces in Yangtze River Delta," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Weili Yang & Bing Fan & Jingbo Tan & Jing Lin & Teng Shao, 2022. "The Spatial Perception and Spatial Feature of Rural Cultural Landscape in the Context of Rural Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Zhenhua Wu & Linghui Zhou & Yabei Wang, 2022. "Prediction of the Spatial Pattern of Carbon Emissions Based on Simulation of Land Use Change under Different Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Ying Pan & Jiayu Bai & Sam Turner, 2023. "History in Points, Lines and Polygons: Time Depth in the Landscape of Guangdong Province, Southern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, October.
    16. Yang Tang & Yongbo Yuan & Boquan Tian, 2023. "Analysis of the Driving Mechanism of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity from the Perspective of Urban Renewal," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, July.
    17. Reinhard, Stijn & Naranjo, María A. & Polman, Nico & Hennen, Wil, 2022. "Modelling choices and social interactions with a threshold public good: Investment decisions in a polder in Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Han Zhang & Dongli Wu, 2022. "The Impact of Transport Infrastructure on Rural Industrial Integration: Spatial Spillover Effects and Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, July.
    19. Christian Nolf & Yuting Xie & Florence Vannoorbeeck & Bing Chen, 2021. "Delta management in evolution: a comparative review of the Yangtze River Delta and Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt Delta," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 597-624, June.
    20. Lianma Zhang & Dazhuan Ge & Pan Sun & Dongqi Sun, 2021. "The Transition Mechanism and Revitalization Path of Rural Industrial Land from a Spatial Governance Perspective: The Case of Shunde District, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    21. Fei Zhao & Changqiao Zhu & Jia’en Zhang & Shiming Luo & Yueyi Feng & Huimin Xiang & Yichen Jiang & Xiali Lu & Yi Tian, 2023. "Is Land Expropriation to Keep Agricultural Use an Effective Strategy for the Conservation of an Urban Agricultural Heritage System? Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    22. Si Chen & Yoonshin Kwak & Le Zhang & Grant Mosey & Brian Deal, 2021. "Tightly Coupling Input Output Economics with Spatio-Temporal Land Use in a Dynamic Planning Support System Framework," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lianma Zhang & Dazhuan Ge & Pan Sun & Dongqi Sun, 2021. "The Transition Mechanism and Revitalization Path of Rural Industrial Land from a Spatial Governance Perspective: The Case of Shunde District, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Wenzhu Zhou & Yiwen Zhang & Yajun Tang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Mechanisms of Polder Land Use in the “Water-Polder-Village” System: A Case Study of Gaochun District in Nanjing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Xinman Wang & Rong Zhu & Baoqi Che, 2022. "Spatial Optimization of Tourist-Oriented Villages by Space Syntax Based on Population Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Marcel Bednarz & Tom Broekel, 2020. "Pulled or pushed? The spatial diffusion of wind energy between local demand and supply," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(4), pages 893-916.
    5. Weking, Jörg & Desouza, Kevin C. & Fielt, Erwin & Kowalkiewicz, Marek, 2023. "Metaverse-enabled entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    6. Hirt, Léon F. & Sahakian, Marlyne & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "What subnational imaginaries for solar PV? The case of the Swiss energy transition," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Wiegand, Julia, 2017. "Dezentrale Stromerzeugung als Chance zur Stärkung der Energie-Resilienz: Eine qualitative Analyse kommunaler Strategien im Raum Unna," Wuppertaler Studienarbeiten zur nachhaltigen Entwicklung, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, volume 11, number 11, January.
    8. Chen, Kunqiu & Long, Hualou & Liao, Liuwen & Tu, Shuangshuang & Li, Tingting, 2020. "Land use transitions and urban-rural integrated development: Theoretical framework and China’s evidence," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Campos-Celador, Álvaro & Terés-Zubiaga, Jon, 2018. "Renewable Energy Cooperatives as an instrument towards the energy transition in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 215-229.
    10. Funcke, Simon & Bauknecht, Dierk, 2016. "Typology of centralised and decentralised visions for electricity infrastructure," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 67-74.
    11. Bessi, Alessandro & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2021. "The role of gas on future perspectives of renewable energy diffusion: Bridging technology or lock-in?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Torres-Avila, Angelica & Aguilar-Ávila, Jorge & Santoyo-Cortés, Vinicio Horacio & Martínez-González, Enrique Genaro & Aguilar-Gallegos, Norman, 2022. "Innovation in the pineapple value chain in Mexico: Explaining the global adoption process of the MD-2 hybrid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Hellsmark, Hans & Hansen, Teis, 2020. "A new dawn for (oil) incumbents within the bioeconomy? Trade-offs and lessons for policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Eleftheria Vasileiadou & Boukje Huijben & Rob Raven, 2014. "Crowdfunding niches? Exploring the potential of crowdfunding for financing renewable energy niches in the Netherlands," Working Papers 14-11, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Nov 2014.
    15. Marianne Ryghaug & Michael Ornetzeder & Tomas Moe Skjølsvold & William Throndsen, 2019. "The Role of Experiments and Demonstration Projects in Efforts of Upscaling: An Analysis of Two Projects Attempting to Reconfigure Production and Consumption in Energy and Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-15, October.
    16. van Wijk, Michel & van Bueren, Ellen & te Brömmelstroet, Marco, 2014. "Governing structures for airport regions: Learning from the rise and fall of the ‘Bestuursforum’ in the Schiphol airport region," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 139-150.
    17. Pradeep Racherla & Munir Mandviwalla, 2013. "Moving from Access to Use of the Information Infrastructure: A Multilevel Sociotechnical Framework," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 709-730, September.
    18. Merrie, Andrew & Olsson, Per, 2014. "An innovation and agency perspective on the emergence and spread of Marine Spatial Planning," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 366-374.
    19. Barbanente, Angela & Grassini, Laura, 2022. "Fostering transitions in landscape policies: A multi-level perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Dongshui Xie & Caiquan Bai & Huimin Wang & Qihang Xue, 2022. "The Land System and the Rise and Fall of China’s Rural Industrialization: Based on the Perspective of Institutional Change of Rural Collective Construction Land," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:914-:d:1640237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.