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The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Efficiency and Reliability of Solar, Hydro, and Wind Energy Sources

Author

Listed:
  • Uma S. Bhatt

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Benjamin A. Carreras

    (Department Fisica, Universidad Carlos III, Avenida de la Universidad, 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain
    IFISC, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-UIB), Campus Universitat Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain)

  • José Miguel Reynolds Barredo

    (Department Fisica, Universidad Carlos III, Avenida de la Universidad, 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • David E. Newman

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Pere Collet

    (IFISC, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-UIB), Campus Universitat Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain)

  • Damiá Gomila

    (IFISC, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-UIB), Campus Universitat Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain)

Abstract

Climate change impacts the electric power system by affecting both the load and generation. It is paramount to understand this impact in the context of renewable energy as their market share has increased and will continue to grow. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the supply of renewable energy through applying novel metrics of intermittency, power production and storage required by the renewable energy plants as a function of historical climate data variability. Here we focus on and compare two disparate locations, Palma de Mallorca in the Balearic Islands and Cordova, Alaska. The main results of this analysis of wind, solar radiation and precipitation over the 1950–2020 period show that climate change impacts both the total supply available and its variability. Importantly, this impact is found to vary significantly with location. This analysis demonstrates the feasibility of a process to evaluate the local optimal mix of renewables, the changing needs for energy storage as well as the ability to evaluate the impact on grid reliability regarding both penetration of the increasing renewable resources and changes in the variability of the resource. This framework can be used to quantify the impact on both transmission grids and microgrids and can guide possible mitigation paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Uma S. Bhatt & Benjamin A. Carreras & José Miguel Reynolds Barredo & David E. Newman & Pere Collet & Damiá Gomila, 2022. "The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Efficiency and Reliability of Solar, Hydro, and Wind Energy Sources," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1275-:d:883261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Andrey M. Bramm & Stanislav A. Eroshenko & Alexandra I. Khalyasmaa & Pavel V. Matrenin, 2023. "Grey Wolf Optimizer for RES Capacity Factor Maximization at the Placement Planning Stage," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, June.

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