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The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China

Author

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  • Canying Zeng

    (Institute of Land and Urban–Rural Development, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center for Data Science and Big Data Analysis, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Shaohua Wu

    (Institute of Land and Urban–Rural Development, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Hua Zhou

    (The Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutralization and Land Space Optimization, Nanjing 210008, China
    Institute of Land and Resources Survey and Planning of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550004, China)

  • Min Cheng

    (Institute of Land and Urban–Rural Development, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

Abstract

Little attention has been paid to the impact of future urban expansion patterns on carbon emissions based on the existing urban pattern of a region. This study used the Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration as the study area, and the relationships between regional urbanization and CO 2 emissions in the study area were analyzed based on historical data. Urban growth patterns were then simulated in four scenarios that focused on the next 15 years, and they were based on the cellular automaton model. In each different scenario, the CO 2 emissions were predicted, and some implications regarding the impact of those emissions were provided. The results showed that as urban land-use intensity increases, CO 2 emissions first increase then decrease; however, the rate of decline for CO 2 emissions is much slower than the rate at which it rises. Moreover, in the next 15 years, urban expansion will lead to a significant increase in CO 2 emissions. The CO 2 emissions were found to be lowest in the spatial agglomeration scenario and highest in the spatial dispersion scenario. The spatial agglomeration scenario was conducive to understanding how CO 2 emissions eventually peak; however, different cities in the study area should adopt different urban expansion patterns. These research results can provide a reference guide for the government with regard to urban planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Canying Zeng & Shaohua Wu & Hua Zhou & Min Cheng, 2022. "The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1211-:d:877578
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoping Li & Sai Hu & Lifu Jiang & Bing Han & Jie Li & Xuan Wei, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and the Development Path of Land-Use Carbon Emissions from a Low-Carbon Perspective: A Case Study of Guizhou Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Jinxing Hu & Cuiying Shao & Zhaolong Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Sustainable Regional Development Policy on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Yangtze River Delta of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.

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