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Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

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  • Yang Chen

    (Law School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
    Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Wenze Yue

    (Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Xue Liu

    (School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)

  • Linlin Zhang

    (Department of Urban-Rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Ye’an Chen

    (School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

Abstract

There is growing concern about the consequences of future urban expansion on carbon storage as our planet experiences rapid urbanization. While an increasing body of literature was focused on quantifying the carbon storage impact of future urban expansion across the globe, rare attempts were made from the comparative perspective on the same scale, particularly in Central Asia. In this study, Central Asian capitals, namely Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Nur Sultan, and Tashkent, were used as cases. According to the potential impacts of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) on urban expansion, baseline development scenario (BDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS) were defined. We then simulated the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion from 2019 to 2029 by using Google Earth Engine, the Future Land Use Simulation model, and the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs model. We further explored the drivers for carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion in five capitals. The results reveal that Nur Sultan will experience carbon storage growth from 2019 to 2029 under all scenarios, while Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent will show a decreasing tendency. EPS and CPS will preserve the most carbon storage for Nur Sultan and the other four cities, respectively. The negative impact of future urban expansion on carbon storage will be evident in Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, which will be relatively inapparent in Nur Sultan. The potential drivers for carbon storage consequences of future urban expansion include agricultural development in Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, desert city development in Ashkhabad, and prioritized development of the central city and green development in Nur Sultan. We suggest that future urban development strategies for five capitals should be on the basis of differentiated characteristics and drivers for the carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Chen & Wenze Yue & Xue Liu & Linlin Zhang & Ye’an Chen, 2021. "Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:6:p:608-:d:570282
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Zhang & Meixia Ren & Xin Lu & Yu Li & Jianjun Cao, 2022. "Effect of the Belt and Road Initiatives on Trade and Its Related LUCC and Ecosystem Services of Central Asian Nations," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Xiang Li & Jiang Zhu & Tao Liu & Xiangdong Yin & Jiangchun Yao & Hao Jiang & Bing Bu & Jianlong Yan & Yixuan Li & Zhangcheng Chen, 2023. "Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Xiaoqiang Shen & Jinping Wang & Xiaobin Zhang & Hanlu Bei, 2022. "Review of Research on Non-Conforming Urban Expansion: Measurement, Interpretation, and Governance," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Canying Zeng & Shaohua Wu & Hua Zhou & Min Cheng, 2022. "The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Yingxue Li & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li & Xiang Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in Changchun City Based on FLUS and InVEST Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, April.

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