IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v11y2022i3p362-d762208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Analysis of Livestock Carrying Capacity Risk in Farmland from the Perspective of Planting and Breeding Balance in Northeast China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhe Zhao

    (School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, China)

  • Xiangzheng Deng

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Fan Zhang

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Zhihui Li

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Wenjiao Shi

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Zhigang Sun

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xuezhen Zhang

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

In this paper, we selected the northeast region as a study area from the perspective of soil nutrient demand, calculated the livestock carrying capacity of farmland under three scenarios where nitrogen nutrient accounts for 35% (low level), 45% (medium level), and 55% (high level) of fertilization, and carried out a risk analysis. The results show that the scale of husbandry breeding is expanding and the scale of the planting industry has remained basically unchanged. Under the three scenarios, there were 23 regions where the livestock manure exceeded the maximum value that could be absorbed by farmland in 2008 and 28 regions in 2019. These regions in the potential area are mostly located in Heilongjiang province and the regions in the restricted area are mostly located in Liaoning Province. On the whole, the northeast region is generally faced with the problem of livestock overloading, and the insufficient utilization and treatment capacity of livestock manure poses a huge threat to regional ecological security. Based on this, adjusting the structure of regional planting and breeding, promoting the development of the livestock manure processing industry, enhancing the production capacity of organic fertilizer, and constructing an integrated pattern of regional planting and breeding are effective ways to realize the sustainable utilization of farmland in northeast China.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhe Zhao & Xiangzheng Deng & Fan Zhang & Zhihui Li & Wenjiao Shi & Zhigang Sun & Xuezhen Zhang, 2022. "Scenario Analysis of Livestock Carrying Capacity Risk in Farmland from the Perspective of Planting and Breeding Balance in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:3:p:362-:d:762208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/3/362/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/3/362/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yongsheng & Li, Yuheng, 2019. "Promotion of degraded land consolidation to rural poverty alleviation in the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Guo, Xudong & Chang, Qing & Liu, Xiao & Bao, Huimin & Zhang, Yuepeng & Tu, Xueying & Zhu, Chunxia & Lv, Chunyan & Zhang, Yanyu, 2018. "Multi-dimensional eco-land classification and management for implementing the ecological redline policy in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 15-31.
    3. Deng, Xiangzheng & Gibson, John, 2019. "Improving eco-efficiency for the sustainable agricultural production: A case study in Shandong, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 394-400.
    4. Zhilong Wu & Bo Li & Xuhuan Dai & Ying Hou, 2020. "Coupled Relationship between Rural Livelihoods and the Environment at a Village Scale: A Case Study in the Mongolian Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Shuqin Jin & Bin Zhang & Bi Wu & Dongmei Han & Yu Hu & Chenchen Ren & Chuanzhen Zhang & Xun Wei & Yan Wu & Arthur P. J. Mol & Stefan Reis & Baojing Gu & Jie Chen, 2021. "Decoupling livestock and crop production at the household level in China," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 48-55, January.
    6. Khoshnevisan, Benyamin & Duan, Na & Tsapekos, Panagiotis & Awasthi, Mukesh Kumar & Liu, Zhidan & Mohammadi, Ali & Angelidaki, Irini & Tsang, Daniel CW. & Zhang, Zengqiang & Pan, Junting & Ma, Lin & Ag, 2021. "A critical review on livestock manure biorefinery technologies: Sustainability, challenges, and future perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Rui Zhao & Junying Li & Kening Wu & Long Kang, 2021. "Cultivated Land Use Zoning Based on Soil Function Evaluation from the Perspective of Black Soil Protection," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, June.
    8. Duan, Yaming & Wang, Hui & Huang, An & Xu, Yueqing & Lu, Longhui & Ji, Zhengxin, 2021. "Identification and spatial-temporal evolution of rural “production-living-ecological” space from the perspective of villagers’ behavior – A case study of Ertai Town, Zhangjiakou City," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Ge Song & Hongmei Zhang, 2021. "Cultivated Land Use Layout Adjustment Based on Crop Planting Suitability: A Case Study of Typical Counties in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-19, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lei Gao & Taowu Pei & Jingran Zhang & Yu Tian, 2022. "The “Pollution Halo” Effect of FDI: Evidence from the Chinese Sichuan–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Lei Gao & Jingran Zhang & Yu Tian & Xinyu Liu & Shuxin Guan & Yuhong Wu, 2023. "Study on the Impact of Collaborative Agglomeration of Manufacturing and Producer Services on PM 2.5 Pollution: Evidence from Urban Agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Zhuoyuan Gu & Jing Xue & Hongfang Han & Chao Wang, 2025. "Exploring Crop Production Strategies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Based on Scenario Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Lei Gao & Junxuan Guo & Xu Wang & Yu Tian & Tielong Wang & Jingran Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Influence of Different Types of Industrial Agglomeration on Ecological Efficiency in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Yixuan Du & Zhe Zhao & Shuang Liu & Zhihui Li, 2023. "The Impact of Agricultural Labor Migration on the Urban–Rural Dual Economic Structure: The Case of Liaoning Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Zhe Zhao & Pengyu Peng & Fan Zhang & Jiayin Wang & Hongxuan Li, 2022. "The Impact of the Urbanization Process on Agricultural Technical Efficiency in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-20, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chunyang Zhang & Junjie Chen, 2023. "Spatial Morphology Optimization of Rural Planning Based on Space of Flow: An Empirical Study of Zepan Village in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Zhe Zhao & Pengyu Peng & Fan Zhang & Jiayin Wang & Hongxuan Li, 2022. "The Impact of the Urbanization Process on Agricultural Technical Efficiency in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Li, Hanbing & Jin, Xiaobin & McCormick, Barbara Prack & Tittonell, Pablo & Liu, Jing & Han, Bo & Sun, Rui & Zhou, Yinkang, 2023. "Analysis of the contribution of land consolidation to sustainable poverty alleviation under various natural conditions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Zhe Zhao & Yuping Bai & Xiangzheng Deng & Jiancheng Chen & Jian Hou & Zhihui Li, 2020. "Changes in Livestock Grazing Efficiency Incorporating Grassland Productivity: The Case of Hulun Buir, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-13, November.
    5. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    6. Rahul Kadam & Sangyeol Jo & Jonghwa Lee & Kamonwan Khanthong & Heewon Jang & Jungyu Park, 2024. "A Review on the Anaerobic Co-Digestion of Livestock Manures in the Context of Sustainable Waste Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Tamar Papiashvili & Jie Shang & Ali Raza & Vasilii Erokhin, 2025. "Hyper-industrialization of China’s Agricultural Sector: Effects of Administration, Logistics, and Trade Integration," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 389-411, March.
    8. Costantini, Michele & Provolo, Giorgio & Bacenetti, Jacopo, 2024. "The effects of incorporating renewable energy into the environmental footprint of beef production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    9. Li, Jiaxin & Wang, Zihan & Cheng, Xin & Shuai, Jing & Shuai, Chuanmin & Liu, Jing, 2020. "Has solar PV achieved the national poverty alleviation goals? Empirical evidence from the performances of 52 villages in rural China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    10. Wu, Zhilong & Dai, Xuhuan & Li, Bo & Hou, Ying, 2021. "Livelihood consequences of the Grain for Green Programme across regional and household scales: A case study in the Loess Plateau," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Wang, Ziyang & Wang, Wenxiong & Yu, Lihong & Zhang, Dongli, 2022. "Multidimensional poverty alleviation effect of different rural land consolidation models: A case study of Hubei and Guizhou, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Maria Salud Camilleri-Rumbau & Kelly Briceño & Lene Fjerbæk Søtoft & Knud Villy Christensen & Maria Cinta Roda-Serrat & Massimiliano Errico & Birgir Norddahl, 2021. "Treatment of Manure and Digestate Liquid Fractions Using Membranes: Opportunities and Challenges," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-30, March.
    13. Yajuan Wang & Xi Wu & Hongbo Zhu, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Spatial Disequilibrium of Cultivated Land Use Efficiency in China: An Empirical Study Based on 342 Prefecture-Level Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Lu Cai & Chaoqing Chai & Bangbang Zhang & Feng Yang & Wei Wang & Chengdong Zhang, 2022. "The Theoretical Approach and Practice of Farmland Rights System Reform from Decentralization to Centralization Promoting Agricultural Modernization: Evidence from Yuyang District in Shaanxi, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Petru Alexandru Vlaicu & Arabela Elena Untea & Alexandra Gabriela Oancea, 2024. "Sustainable Poultry Feeding Strategies for Achieving Zero Hunger and Enhancing Food Quality," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-57, October.
    16. Zhiwei Pan & Decai Tang & Haojia Kong & Junxia He, 2022. "An Analysis of Agricultural Production Efficiency of Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on a Three-Stage DEA Malmquist Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-15, January.
    17. Jiang, Bo & Bai, Yang & Wong, Christina P. & Xu, Xibao & Alatalo, Juha M., 2019. "China’s ecological civilization program–Implementing ecological redline policy," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 111-114.
    18. Lin Zhu & Mingying Yang & Wenzhuo Li & Heping Liao & Han Huang, 2021. "The Spatial–Temporal Changes of the Coupling Relationship among Agricultural Labor Force, Agricultural Economy, and Farmland in Chongqing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.
    19. Shi, Linna & Wang, Yongsheng, 2021. "Evolution characteristics and driving factors of negative decoupled rural residential land and resident population in the Yellow River Basin," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Zhiyuan Zhu & Zhenzhong Dai & Shilin Li & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land and Its Underlying Factors in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-15, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:3:p:362-:d:762208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.