IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v18y2025i7p349-d1685352.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The South African Fear and Greed Index and Its Connectedness to the U.S. Index

Author

Listed:
  • Deevarshan Naidoo

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, Durban 4000, South Africa)

  • Peter Moores-Pitt

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, Durban 4000, South Africa)

  • Paul-Francois Muzindutsi

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, Durban 4000, South Africa)

Abstract

This study investigates the cross-country spillover effects of investor sentiment, specifically Fear and Greed, between the United States and South Africa, within the broader context of increasing global financial integration and behavioral finance. Using monthly data from June 2007 to June 2024, this research constructs and tests the validity of a South African Fear and Greed Index, adapted from CNN’s U.S.-centric index, to better capture the unique dynamics and contribute to an alternate sentiment index for an emerging market. Employing the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY) connectedness framework, this study quantifies both static and dynamic spillover effects via a vector autoregression-based variance decomposition model. The results reveal significant bidirectional sentiment transmission, with the U.S. acting as a dominant net transmitter and South Africa as a net receiver, along with notable cross-country effects closely linked to the global economic trend. Spillover intensity escalates during periods of global economic stress, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings highlight that the USA significantly influences South Africa and that the adapted SA Fear and Greed Index better accounts for South African market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Deevarshan Naidoo & Peter Moores-Pitt & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2025. "The South African Fear and Greed Index and Its Connectedness to the U.S. Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:7:p:349-:d:1685352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/7/349/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/7/349/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Hirshleifer & Lin Peng & Qiguang Wang, 2025. "News Diffusion in Social Networks and Stock Market Reactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(3), pages 883-937.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    4. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    6. Cho, D Chinhyung & Eun, Cheol S & Senbet, Lemma W, 1986. "International Arbitrage Pricing Theory: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 313-329, June.
    7. Endri Endri & Firman Fauzi & Maya Syafriana Effendi, 2024. "Integration of the Indonesian Stock Market with Eight Major Trading Partners’ Stock Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Solnik, B H, 1974. "The International Pricing of Risk: An Empirical Investigation of the World Capital Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 365-378, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boyao Wu & Difang Huang & Muzi Chen, 2023. "Estimating contagion mechanism in global equity market with time‐zone effect," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 543-572, September.
    2. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2018. "A global network topology of stock markets: Transmitters and receivers of spillover effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 2136-2153.
    3. Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Zhou, Bin & Shi, Huai-Long, 2024. "Quantile volatility connectedness among themes and sectors: Novel evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Chang, Shu-Lien, 2013. "Spillovers of currency carry trade returns, market risk sentiment, and U.S. market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 197-216.
    6. Qi Xu & Yang Ye, 2023. "Commodity network and predictable returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1423-1449, October.
    7. Herculano, Miguel C. & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Investor sentiment and global economic conditions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 134-152.
    8. Gong, Jue & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhou, Yang & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi & Foglia, Matteo, 2023. "Spreading of cross-market volatility information: Evidence from multiplex network analysis of volatility spillovers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Wen-I Chuang & Bong-Soo Lee & Kai-Li Wang, 2014. "US and Domestic Market Gains and Asian Investors’ Overconfident Trading Behavior," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 113-148, March.
    11. Boyao Wu & Difang Huang & Muzi Chen, 2024. "Estimating Contagion Mechanism in Global Equity Market with Time-Zone Effect," Papers 2404.04335, arXiv.org.
    12. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Volatility linkages between stock and commodity markets revisited: Industry perspective and portfolio implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Shi, Huai-Long & Chen, Huayi, 2025. "Quantile return connectedness of theme factors and portfolio implications: Evidence from the US and China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Wang, Yu-Min & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2023. "State transformation of information spillover in asset markets and effective dynamic hedging strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Halousková, Martina & Stašek, Daniel & Horváth, Matúš, 2022. "The role of investor attention in global asset price variation during the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Bhanja, Niyati & Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah, 2023. "Aggregate, asymmetric and frequency-based spillover among equity, precious metals, and cryptocurrency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Oguzhan Cepni & Özge Serbest, 2024. "Sentiment matters: the effect of news-media on spillovers among cryptocurrency returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(14), pages 1577-1613, September.
    18. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    19. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Stef, Nicolae & Wissal, Ben Arfi & Sami, Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and connectedness among climate change, technological innovation, and uncertainty: Evidence from a quantile VAR network and wavelet coherence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    20. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:7:p:349-:d:1685352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.