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Impact of Financial Factors on the Economic Cycle Dynamics in Selected European Countries

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  • Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu

    (“Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research, Calea 13 Septembrie, 050711 Bucharest, Romania
    Department of Money and Banking, Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010961 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Robert-Adrian Grecu

    (Department of Money and Banking, Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010961 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

The aim of this paper was to assess the impact generated by the financial market shocks on the economic cycle in European countries. In addition to the studies from the literature, which focus more on the developed economies, this paper also considered the situation at the level of a group of emerging economies to highlight the potential differences. In this sense, it was analyzed how the shocks at the level of the banking sector, those at the level of the capital market, and those at the level of the real estate market influence the dynamics of the economic cycle. Both econometric models for the individual analyses of each state, such as the Bayesian vector autoregression model, and models at the level of groups of states, such as panel regressions, were used for the period 2007–2022. The results showed a strong connection between the dynamics of the financial system and that of the real economy. In addition, the impact of financial factors on the economic cycle tends to be much stronger and more significant in the case of developing countries, compared to developed ones. In this regard, it was recommended that fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated to generate the expected effect on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Robert-Adrian Grecu, 2023. "Impact of Financial Factors on the Economic Cycle Dynamics in Selected European Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:12:p:492-:d:1284846
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Wasim Ahmad & Sanjay Sehgal, 2018. "Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Interdependence and the Rising Role of China in SAARC," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 337-362, June.
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