IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i12p492-d1284846.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Financial Factors on the Economic Cycle Dynamics in Selected European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu

    (“Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research, Calea 13 Septembrie, 050711 Bucharest, Romania
    Department of Money and Banking, Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010961 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Robert-Adrian Grecu

    (Department of Money and Banking, Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010961 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

The aim of this paper was to assess the impact generated by the financial market shocks on the economic cycle in European countries. In addition to the studies from the literature, which focus more on the developed economies, this paper also considered the situation at the level of a group of emerging economies to highlight the potential differences. In this sense, it was analyzed how the shocks at the level of the banking sector, those at the level of the capital market, and those at the level of the real estate market influence the dynamics of the economic cycle. Both econometric models for the individual analyses of each state, such as the Bayesian vector autoregression model, and models at the level of groups of states, such as panel regressions, were used for the period 2007–2022. The results showed a strong connection between the dynamics of the financial system and that of the real economy. In addition, the impact of financial factors on the economic cycle tends to be much stronger and more significant in the case of developing countries, compared to developed ones. In this regard, it was recommended that fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated to generate the expected effect on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Robert-Adrian Grecu, 2023. "Impact of Financial Factors on the Economic Cycle Dynamics in Selected European Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:12:p:492-:d:1284846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/12/492/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/12/492/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    2. Jos� E. G�mez-Gonz�lez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & H�ctor Manuel Z�rate & Fernando Tenjo-Galarza, 2014. "Testing for causality between credit and real business cycles in the frequency domain: an illustration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 697-701, July.
    3. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    4. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Wasim Ahmad & Sanjay Sehgal, 2018. "Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Interdependence and the Rising Role of China in SAARC," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 337-362, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2021. "Using Credit Variables to Date Business Cycle and to Estimate the Probabilities of Recession in Real Time," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 76-96, September.
    3. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2018. "To sign or not to sign? On the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 189-192.
    4. Giovanni Angelini & Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Giovanni Caggiano & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Uncertainty across volatility regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, April.
    5. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    7. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo & Sala, Luca, 2023. "The Impact of Financial Shocks on the Forecast Distribution of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Liaudinskas, Karolis, 2022. "Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers : Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize trade shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    12. Brianti, Marco, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    13. Claudia Foroni & Paolo Gelain & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The financial accelerator mechanism: does frequency matter?," Working Papers 22-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1352-1370, November.
    15. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Ortiz, Alberto & Paustian, Matthias, 2014. "Estimating contract indexation in a Financial Accelerator Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-149.
    16. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    18. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 257-272.
    19. Reichenbachas Tomas, 2017. "Credit-Related Shocks in VAR models: The Case of Lithuania," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(3), pages 7-19, January.
    20. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2023. "Foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks and real activity in the Euro area," MPRA Paper 120022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:12:p:492-:d:1284846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.