IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v11y2023i4p134-d1276520.html

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the U.S. Stock Market since the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Willem Thorbecke

    (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan)

Abstract

Inflation in 2021 and 2022 grew much faster than the Federal Reserve expected. The Fed downplayed inflation in 2021 and then increased the federal funds rate by 500 basis points between March 2022 and May 2023. This paper investigates how this unprecedented tightening has impacted the stock market. To do so, it estimates a fully specified multi-factor model that measures the exposure of 53 assets to monetary policy surprises over the 1994 to 2019 period. It then uses the monetary policy betas to gauge investors’ beliefs about monetary policy between 2020 and 2023. The results indicate that changing perceptions about monetary policy multiplied uncertainty and stock market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem Thorbecke, 2023. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the U.S. Stock Market since the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:134-:d:1276520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/11/4/134/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/11/4/134/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium [Do macro variables, asset markets or surveys forecast inflation better?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 755-806.
    2. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2023. "Monetary Policy When the Central Bank Shapes Financial-Market Sentiment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 53-76, Winter.
    3. Andreas Hornstein, 2022. "Recession Predictors: An Evaluation," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 22(30), August.
    4. McElroy, Marjorie B & Burmeister, Edwin, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 29-42, January.
    5. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Su, Zedongfang & Zhang, Xinyu & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2025. "Exploring the Nexus of virtual and real-world assets: Price co-movement and risk spillovers in the metaverse era," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Willem THORBECKE, 2023. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the U.S. Stock Market since the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    3. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
    4. Cowan, Adrian M. & Joutz, Frederick L., 2006. "An unobserved component model of asset pricing across financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 86-107.
    5. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Dungey, Mardi, 2018. "Quantile relationships between standard, diffusion and jump betas across Japanese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-47.
    6. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 58-68.
    7. Annaert, Jan & Mensah, Lord, 2014. "Cross-sectional predictability of stock returns, evidence from the 19th century Brussels Stock Exchange (1873–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-43.
    8. Qi Shi & Bin Li & Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung & Richard Chung, 2017. "Augmenting the intertemporal CAPM with inflation: Further evidence from alternative models," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(4), pages 653-672, November.
    9. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    10. Andrew Detzel, 2017. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Investment Opportunities, And Asset Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 315-348, September.
    11. Roh, Tai-Yong & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2019. "Consumption growth predictability and asset prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 95-118.
    12. Ciciretti, Rocco & Dalò, Ambrogio & Dam, Lammertjan, 2023. "The contributions of betas versus characteristics to the ESG premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 104-124.
    13. Philip Gray & Ping-Sheng Koh & Yen H Tong, 2009. "Accruals Quality, Information Risk and Cost of Capital: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1-2), pages 51-72.
    14. Kaul, Aditya & Kayacetin, Nuri Volkan, 2017. "Flight-to-quality, economic fundamentals, and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 162-175.
    15. Adrian, Tobias & Franzoni, Francesco, 2009. "Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-556, September.
    16. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    17. Doukas, John & Hall, Patricia H. & Lang, Larry H. P., 1999. "The pricing of currency risk in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-20, January.
    18. Kim, Dongcheol & Kim, Tong Suk & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Future labor income growth and the cross-section of equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, January.
    19. Galsband, Victoria, 2012. "Downside risk of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2379-2388.
    20. Kang, Byoung Uk & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Timescale betas and the cross section of equity returns: Framework, application, and implications for interpreting the Fama–French factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-39.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:134-:d:1276520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.