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Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model

Author

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  • Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara

    (Centro de Investigación de Estudios Avanzados del Maule (CIEAM), Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chiara Saracini

    (Centro de Investigación de Estudios Avanzados del Maule (CIEAM), Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile
    Centro de Investigación en Neuropsicologia y Neurociencias Cognitivas (CINPSI Neurocog), Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus emergency prompted unprecedented safety measures, which were accepted by the population of each country to different degrees, for example, with more or less willingness to use personal protective elements (PPEs). We have developed a mathematical model of the contagion process, based on chilean data, to assess the interaction between biological factors (such as the impact of vaccination) and behavioral factors (such as the population’s perception of risk). The model clearly shows that the virus spreads through three waves of contagion, the second being the most prominent, regardless of any alteration in the variables taken into account, which only affect the overall number of people infected. By considering alternative values of the risk perception variable and examining the different possible scenarios, we have also found that the less reaction to change the population has (and the lower the disposition to use PPEs), the higher the waves of contagion and the death toll are.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara & Chiara Saracini, 2022. "Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2022-:d:747047
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Richard D., 2006. "Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(12), pages 3113-3123, December.
    2. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    3. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara & Katia Vogt-Geisse & Maritza Cabrera, 2022. "Collateral Effects of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Human and Environmental Safety in an Epidemiological Model for Malaria with Human Risk Perception," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.

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