IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pmed00/1004250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: A semi-parametric, meta-regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Antillón
  • Xiao Li
  • Lander Willem
  • Joke Bilcke
  • RESCEU investigators
  • Mark Jit
  • Philippe Beutels

Abstract

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are among the primary causes of death for children under 5 years of age worldwide. A notable challenge with many of the upcoming prophylactic interventions against RSV is their short duration of protection, making the age profile of key interest to the design of prevention strategies. Methods and findings: We leverage the RSV data collected on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in a systematic review in combination with flexible generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to characterize the age burden of RSV incidence, hospitalization, and hospital-based case fatality rate (hCFR). Due to the flexible nature of GAMMs, we estimate the peak, median, and mean incidence of infection to inform discussions on the ideal “window of protection” of prophylactic interventions. In a secondary analysis, we reestimate the burden of RSV in all low- and middle-income countries. The peak age of community-based incidence is 4.8 months, and the mean and median age of infection is 18.9 and 14.7 months, respectively. Estimating the age profile using the incidence coming from hospital-based studies yields a slightly younger age profile, in which the peak age of infection is 2.6 months and the mean and median age of infection are 15.8 and 11.6 months, respectively. More severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and in-hospital death have a younger age profile. Children under 6 months of age constitute 10% of the population under 5 years of age but bear 20% to 29% of cases, 28% to 39% of hospitalizations, and 38% to 50% of deaths. Conclusions: We have demonstrated an approach to synthesize information on RSV outcomes in a statistically principled manner, and we estimate that the age profile of RSV burden depends on whether information on incidence is collected in hospitals or in the community. Our results suggest that the ideal prophylactic strategy may require multiple products to avert the risk among preschool children. Marina Antillon and colleagues use updated statistical models to estimate the burden of RSV in low- and middle-income countries with the aim of improved targeted prevention strategies.Why was this study done?: What did the researchers do and find?: What do these findings mean?:

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Antillón & Xiao Li & Lander Willem & Joke Bilcke & RESCEU investigators & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels, 2023. "The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: A semi-parametric, meta-regression approach," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(7), pages 1-25, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004250
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004250
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004250&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004250?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    3. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    4. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. repec:plo:pone00:0045113 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kuchler, Theresa & Russel, Dominic & Stroebel, Johannes, 2022. "JUE Insight: The geographic spread of COVID-19 correlates with the structure of social networks as measured by Facebook," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. John M Drake & Tobias S Brett & Shiyang Chen & Bogdan I Epureanu & Matthew J Ferrari & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Eamon B O’Dea & Suzanne M O’Regan & Andrew W Park & Pejman Rohani, 2019. "The statistics of epidemic transitions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, May.
    8. S. M. Niaz Arifin & Christoph Zimmer & Caroline Trotter & Anaïs Colombini & Fati Sidikou & F. Marc LaForce & Ted Cohen & Reza Yaesoubi, 2019. "Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 39(5), pages 553-567, July.
    9. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    10. Mirjam Kretzschmar & Rafael T Mikolajczyk, 2009. "Contact Profiles in Eight European Countries and Implications for Modelling the Spread of Airborne Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(6), pages 1-8, June.
    11. Obianuju Genevieve Aguolu & Moses Chapa Kiti & Kristin Nelson & Carol Y Liu & Maria Sundaram & Sergio Gramacho & Samuel Jenness & Alessia Melegaro & Charfudin Sacoor & Azucena Bardaji & Ivalda Macicam, 2024. "Comprehensive profiling of social mixing patterns in resource poor countries: A mixed methods research protocol," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(6), pages 1-18, June.
    12. Andrei I. Vlad & Alexei A. Romanyukha & Tatiana E. Sannikova, 2024. "Parameter Tuning of Agent-Based Models: Metaheuristic Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Elisabetta De Cao & Alessia Melegaro & Rogier Klok & Maarten Postma, 2014. "Optimising Assessments of the Epidemiological Impact in the Netherlands of Paediatric Immunisation with 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Using Dynamic Transmission Modelling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(4), pages 1-9, April.
    14. Pirayesh, Amir & Asadaraghi, Alireza & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Siadat, Ali & Battaïa, Olga, 2025. "A dynamic optimization model for vaccine allocation with age considerations: A study inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    15. Gillis, Melissa & Urban, Ryley & Saif, Ahmed & Kamal, Noreen & Murphy, Matthew, 2021. "A simulation–optimization framework for optimizing response strategies to epidemics," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    16. Richard Pitman & David Fisman & Gregory S. Zaric & Maarten Postma & Mirjam Kretzschmar & John Edmunds & Marc Brisson, 2012. "Dynamic Transmission Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(5), pages 712-721, September.
    17. Wiriya Mahikul & Somkid Kripattanapong & Piya Hanvoravongchai & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Prasert Auewarakul & Wirichada Pan-ngum, 2020. "Contact Mixing Patterns and Population Movement among Migrant Workers in an Urban Setting in Thailand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-11, March.
    18. Valentina Marziano & Giorgio Guzzetta & Alessia Mammone & Flavia Riccardo & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Mattia Manica & Andrea Siddu & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Patrizio Pezzotti & Ma, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    19. Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa & Daniel Dempsey & Suzanne Van Osch & Stephen Kinsella & Kevin Burke & Jason Wyse & James Sweeney, 2021. "An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis & Thomas K. Dasaklis & Filippos Fotopoulos & Platon Tinios, 2021. "A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-21, March.
    21. Hammoumi, Aayah & Qesmi, Redouane, 2020. "Impact assessment of containment measure against COVID-19 spread in Morocco," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosmedicine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.