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The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Marziano

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Alessia Mammone

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Flavia Riccardo

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Piero Poletti

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Filippo Trentini

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit
    Bocconi University)

  • Mattia Manica

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

  • Andrea Siddu

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Antonino Bella

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Paola Stefanelli

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Patrizio Pezzotti

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health)

  • Silvio Brusaferro

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Giovanni Rezza

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation
    FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit)

Abstract

COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15–47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Marziano & Giorgio Guzzetta & Alessia Mammone & Flavia Riccardo & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Mattia Manica & Andrea Siddu & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Patrizio Pezzotti & Ma, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27532-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27532-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Yang & Valentina Marziano & Xiaowei Deng & Giorgio Guzzetta & Juanjuan Zhang & Filippo Trentini & Jun Cai & Piero Poletti & Wen Zheng & Wei Wang & Qianhui Wu & Zeyao Zhao & Kaige Dong & Guangjie , 2021. "Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 1009-1020, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabina Marchetti & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Giuseppe Ilardi & Giorgio Guzzetta & Piero Poletti & Patrizio Pezzotti & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Flavia Riccardo & Stefano, 2022. "An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Kim, Kijin & Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Donghyun & Park, Cyn-Young, 2023. "Impacts of social distancing policy and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Paola Bertuccio & Pietro Perotti & Giansanto Mosconi & Simona Dalle Carbonare & Federica Manzoni & Lorenza Boschetti & Stefano Marguati & Paolo Paraluppi & Lorenzo Blandi & Leandro Gentile & Maddalena, 2023. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(8), pages 1-10, April.
    4. Emiliano Ceccarelli & Maria Dorrucci & Giada Minelli & Giovanna Jona Lasinio & Sabrina Prati & Marco Battaglini & Gianni Corsetti & Antonino Bella & Stefano Boros & Daniele Petrone & Flavia Riccardo &, 2022. "Assessing COVID-19-Related Excess Mortality Using Multiple Approaches—Italy, 2020–2021," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Lloyd A. C. Chapman & Maite Aubry & Noémie Maset & Timothy W. Russell & Edward S. Knock & John A. Lees & Henri-Pierre Mallet & Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau & Adam J. Kucharski, 2023. "Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Nicolò Gozzi & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & Ira M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani, 2023. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Yong Ge & Wen-Bin Zhang & Xilin Wu & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Haiyan Liu & Jianghao Wang & Yongze Song & Mengxiao Liu & Wei Yan & Juan Yang & Eimear Cleary & Sarchil H. Qader & Fatumah Atuhaire & Nic, 2022. "Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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