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Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Angeli

    (Hasselt University)

  • Constantino Pereira Caetano

    (Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon)

  • Nicolas Franco

    (Hasselt University
    University of Namur)

  • Pietro Coletti

    (Hasselt University
    UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain))

  • Christel Faes

    (Hasselt University)

  • Geert Molenberghs

    (Hasselt University
    KU Leuven)

  • Philippe Beutels

    (Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp)

  • Steven Abrams

    (Hasselt University
    University of Antwerp)

  • Lander Willem

    (Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp
    University of Antwerp)

  • Niel Hens

    (Hasselt University
    Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp)

Abstract

Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children’s contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Angeli & Constantino Pereira Caetano & Nicolas Franco & Pietro Coletti & Christel Faes & Geert Molenberghs & Philippe Beutels & Steven Abrams & Lander Willem & Niel Hens, 2025. "Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57087-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57087-z
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