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Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Yang

    (Fudan University
    Ministry of Education)

  • Valentina Marziano

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Xiaowei Deng

    (Fudan University)

  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Juanjuan Zhang

    (Fudan University
    Ministry of Education)

  • Filippo Trentini

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Jun Cai

    (Fudan University)

  • Piero Poletti

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Wen Zheng

    (Fudan University)

  • Wei Wang

    (Fudan University)

  • Qianhui Wu

    (Fudan University)

  • Zeyao Zhao

    (Fudan University)

  • Kaige Dong

    (Fudan University)

  • Guangjie Zhong

    (Fudan University)

  • Cécile Viboud

    (National Institutes of Health)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health
    Northeastern University)

  • Hongjie Yu

    (Fudan University
    Ministry of Education
    Fudan University)

Abstract

COVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Yang & Valentina Marziano & Xiaowei Deng & Giorgio Guzzetta & Juanjuan Zhang & Filippo Trentini & Jun Cai & Piero Poletti & Wen Zheng & Wei Wang & Qianhui Wu & Zeyao Zhao & Kaige Dong & Guangjie , 2021. "Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 1009-1020, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01155-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01155-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Yang & Xinhua Chen & Xiaowei Deng & Zhiyuan Chen & Hui Gong & Han Yan & Qianhui Wu & Huilin Shi & Shengjie Lai & Marco Ajelli & Cecile Viboud & Prof Hongjie Yu, 2020. "Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    6. Bo Huang & Jionghua Wang & Jixuan Cai & Shiqi Yao & Paul Kay Sheung Chan & Tony Hong-wing Tam & Ying-Yi Hong & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Alessandra Carioli & Jessica R. Floyd & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & , 2021. "Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 695-705, June.
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    2. Kim, Kijin & Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Donghyun & Park, Cyn-Young, 2023. "Impacts of social distancing policy and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Gabriela Lobinska & Ady Pauzner & Arne Traulsen & Yitzhak Pilpel & Martin A. Nowak, 2022. "Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 193-206, February.
    4. Benjamin Faucher & Rania Assab & Jonathan Roux & Daniel Levy-Bruhl & Cécile Tran Kiem & Simon Cauchemez & Laura Zanetti & Vittoria Colizza & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Chiara Poletto, 2022. "Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Díaz, Fernando & Henríquez, Pablo A. & Winkelried, Diego, 2022. "Stock market volatility and the COVID-19 reproductive number," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Yong Ge & Wen-Bin Zhang & Xilin Wu & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Haiyan Liu & Jianghao Wang & Yongze Song & Mengxiao Liu & Wei Yan & Juan Yang & Eimear Cleary & Sarchil H. Qader & Fatumah Atuhaire & Nic, 2022. "Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Yong Ge & Mengxiao Liu & Shan Hu & Daoping Wang & Jinfeng Wang & Xiaolin Wang & Sarchil Qader & Eimear Cleary & Andrew J. Tatem & Shengjie Lai, 2022. "Who and which regions are at high risk of returning to poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Valentina Marziano & Giorgio Guzzetta & Alessia Mammone & Flavia Riccardo & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Mattia Manica & Andrea Siddu & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Patrizio Pezzotti & Ma, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.

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