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The spatiotemporal scaling laws of urban population dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Xingye Tan

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Bo Huang

    (The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong)

  • Michael Batty

    (University College London)

  • Weiyu Li

    (Suzhou University of Science and Technology)

  • Qi Ryan Wang

    (Northeastern University)

  • Yulun Zhou

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Peng Gong

    (The University of Hong Kong
    The University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Human mobility is becoming increasingly complex in urban environments. However, our fundamental understanding of urban population dynamics, particularly the pulsating fluctuations occurring across different locations and timescales, remains limited. Here, we use mobile device data from large cities and regions worldwide combined with a detrended fractal analysis to uncover a universal spatiotemporal scaling law that governs urban population fluctuations. This law reveals the scale invariance of these fluctuations, spanning from city centers to peripheries over both time and space. Moreover, we show that at any given location, fluctuations obey a time-based scaling law characterized by a spatially decaying exponent, which quantifies their relationship with urban structure. These interconnected discoveries culminate in a robust allometric equation that links population dynamics with urban densities, providing a powerful framework for predicting and managing the complexities of urban human activities. Collectively, this study paves the way for more effective urban planning, transportation strategies, and policies grounded in population dynamics, thereby fostering the development of resilient and sustainable cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Xingye Tan & Bo Huang & Michael Batty & Weiyu Li & Qi Ryan Wang & Yulun Zhou & Peng Gong, 2025. "The spatiotemporal scaling laws of urban population dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58286-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58286-4
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