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The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Paola Bertuccio

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Pietro Perotti

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Giansanto Mosconi

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Simona Dalle Carbonare

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Federica Manzoni

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Lorenza Boschetti

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Stefano Marguati

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Paolo Paraluppi

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Lorenzo Blandi

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Leandro Gentile

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Maddalena Gaeta

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Lorella Cecconami

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Anna Odone

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

Abstract

Excess mortality estimates are considered relevant indicators of direct and indirect pandemic effects on the population. Scant data have been published on cause-specific excess mortality. Using individual-level administrative data covering the Pavia province of Italian northern Lombardy region, we provided all-cause and cause-specific raw (RMR) and age-standardized (ASMR) mortality rates in 2021 and 2015–2019, the rate ratio, and 95% confidence intervals, overall and by sex. We obtained the excess deaths in 2021 as the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths from all causes and the two leading causes of death (all neoplasms and circulatory system diseases) by fitting over-dispersed quasi-Poisson regression models, accounting for temporal, seasonal and demographic changes. The total ASMR in 2021 was 972.4/100,000 (6836 certified deaths), with the highest ASMRs for circulatory system diseases (272.6/100,000) and all neoplasms (270.3/100,000), followed by COVID-19 (94.8/100,000 and 662 deaths). Compared to the expected, we estimated a total of 6.2% excess deaths in 2021 (7.2% in males and 5.4% in females), with no excess deaths from all neoplasms and a 6.2% reduction from circulatory system diseases. COVID-19 continued to affect total mortality in 2021, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2020, consistently with national patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Bertuccio & Pietro Perotti & Giansanto Mosconi & Simona Dalle Carbonare & Federica Manzoni & Lorenza Boschetti & Stefano Marguati & Paolo Paraluppi & Lorenzo Blandi & Leandro Gentile & Maddalena, 2023. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(8), pages 1-10, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:8:p:5529-:d:1125067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giacomo Pietro Vigezzi & Paola Bertuccio & Andrea Amerio & Cristina Bosetti & Davide Gori & Luca Cavalieri d’Oro & Licia Iacoviello & David Stuckler & Alberto Zucchi & Silvano Gallus & Anna Odone & Lo, 2022. "Older Adults’ Access to Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the LOckdown and LifeSTyles (LOST) in Lombardia Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Enrico Grande & Ugo Fedeli & Marilena Pappagallo & Roberta Crialesi & Stefano Marchetti & Giada Minelli & Ivano Iavarone & Luisa Frova & Graziano Onder & Francesco Grippo, 2022. "Variation in Cause-Specific Mortality Rates in Italy during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study Based on Nationwide Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Valentina Marziano & Giorgio Guzzetta & Alessia Mammone & Flavia Riccardo & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Mattia Manica & Andrea Siddu & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Patrizio Pezzotti & Ma, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
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