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Initially High Correlation between Air Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality Declined to Zero as the Pandemic Progressed: There Is No Evidence for a Causal Link between Air Pollution and COVID-19 Vulnerability

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  • Brandon Michael Taylor

    (Economics Department, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA)

  • Michael Ash

    (Economics Department, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA)

  • Lawrence Peter King

    (Economics Department, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003, USA)

Abstract

Wu et al. found a strong positive association between cumulative daily county-level COVID-19 mortality and long-term average PM 2.5 concentrations for data up until September 2020. We replicated the results of Wu et al. and extended the analysis up until May 2022. The association between PM 2.5 concentration and cumulative COVID-19 mortality fell sharply after September 2020. Using the data available from Wu et al.’s “updated_data” branch up until May 2022, we found that the effect of a 1 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 was associated with only a +0.603% mortality difference. The 95% CI of this difference was between −0.560% and +1.78%, narrow bounds that include zero, with the upper bound far below the Wu et al. estimate. Short-term trends in the initial spread of COVID-19, not a long-term epidemiologic association, caused an early correlation between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandon Michael Taylor & Michael Ash & Lawrence Peter King, 2022. "Initially High Correlation between Air Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality Declined to Zero as the Pandemic Progressed: There Is No Evidence for a Causal Link between Air Pollution and COVID-19 Vulnerabi," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:16:p:10000-:d:887524
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fang Fang & Lina Mu & Yifang Zhu & Jianyu Rao & Jody Heymann & Zuo-Feng Zhang, 2021. "Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 , Facemask Mandates, Stay Home Orders and COVID-19 Incidence in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Eric S. Coker & Laura Cavalli & Enrico Fabrizi & Gianni Guastella & Enrico Lippo & Maria Laura Parisi & Nicola Pontarollo & Massimiliano Rizzati & Alessandro Varacca & Sergio Vergalli, 2020. "The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 611-634, August.
    3. Matthew A. Cole & Ceren Ozgen & Eric Strobl, 2020. "Air Pollution Exposure and Covid-19 in Dutch Municipalities," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 581-610, August.
    4. Matthew A Cole & Ceren Ozgen & Eric Strobl, 2020. "Air Pollution Exposure and Covid-19," Discussion Papers 20-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
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