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Projecting Informal Care Demand among Older Koreans between 2020 and 2067

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Hu

    (Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, UK)

  • Peter Shin

    (Milken Institute School of Public Health, Department of Health Policy and Management, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA)

  • Eun-jeong Han

    (Health Insurance Policy Research Institute, National Health Insurance Service, Wonju 26464, Korea)

  • YongJoo Rhee

    (Department of Health Sciences, Dongduk Women’s University, Seoul 02748, Korea
    Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611, USA)

Abstract

Background: The number of Korean older people receiving informal care is expected to rise sharply due to aging population. This study makes projections of demand for informal care in community-dwelling older people aged 65 and over in Korea until 2067. Method: The study drew on data collected from waves 4–6 of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2012–2016, n = 12,975). Population data published by Statistics Korea and data from the Long-term Care Insurance Statistical Yearbook for Korea were also used. A macro-simulation model was built to make the projections. Results: The number of older people receiving informal care will increase from 0.71 million in 2020 to 2.2 million in 2067. Demand for informal care from adult children or relatives is projected to rise by 257%, much faster than the increase in demand for spousal care (164%). The estimates are sensitive to alternative assumptions about future mortality rates, fertility rates, patterns of migration, and the prevalence of functional disabilities in the population. Conclusion: Demand for informal care in Korea will rise substantially in the coming decades, and the increase will be uneven for different groups of care users. Our analyses are not only relevant to the long-term care system for the general older population but also have profound implications for intensive users of long-term care in Korea. The findings highlight the importance of accurate identification of unmet needs in the population and timely delivery of government support to older people and their informal caregivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Hu & Peter Shin & Eun-jeong Han & YongJoo Rhee, 2022. "Projecting Informal Care Demand among Older Koreans between 2020 and 2067," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6391-:d:823135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Courtin, Emilie & Jemiai, Nadia & Mossialos, Elias, 2014. "Mapping support policies for informal carers across the European Union," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 84-94.
    2. Wittenberg, Raphael & King, Derek, 2020. "The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102521, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Hu, Bo, 2019. "Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 61-81, January.
    4. Nayoung Kim, 2015. "Long-term care services expenditure projection in South Korea from 2015 to 2050," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 45-56, January.
    5. Van Houtven, Courtney Harold & Norton, Edward C., 2004. "Informal care and health care use of older adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1159-1180, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hu, Bo & Brimblecombe, Nicola & Cartagena-Farias, Javiera & Silva-Ribeiro, Wagner, 2025. "Projected costs of long-term care for older people in England: The impacts of housing quality improvements," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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