IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2023i1p104-d1306505.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The European Market for Guarantees of Origin for Green Electricity: A Scenario-Based Evaluation of Trading under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Wimmers

    (Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP), TU Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni, 10623 Berlin, Germany
    Energy, Transportation, Environment Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), School of Business and Economics/E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustaße 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

  • Reinhard Madlener

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), School of Business and Economics/E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustaße 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany
    Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Sentralbygg 1, 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

Guarantees of Origin (GOs) were introduced in order to enhance transparency about the origin of green electricity produced in Europe, and to deliberately empower end-consumers to participate in the sustainable energy transition. The separation of electricity and the GO trade has resulted in a prosperous GO market that, however, has been characterized by non-transparency and opportunistic behavior. Historic price development has been opaque and can therefore not be used to forecast future GO prices. This paper, firstly, provides a thorough overview of the European GO market and an analysis of the historic price development; secondly, it proposes a model, the first of its kind, for determining future price developments of European GOs for different renewable energy technologies in different countries up to 2040. For household consumers, GO price determination is based on willingness-to-pay estimates from the literature, whereas for non-household consumers, the model introduces a novel approach to determine the willingness to pay for green electricity. Four different scenarios are considered (Status Quo, Sustainable Development , Full Harmonization , and Ideal Development ) and annual GO data are used. The findings indicate that GO prices can be expected to increase on average in the next years, with prices ranging from 1.77 to 3.36 EUR/MWh in 2040. Sensitivity analysis shows that ‘WTP percentages’ have the highest influence on GO prices. It can be concluded that future GO prices will remain challenging to predict, even with the support of sophisticated models, due to the expected supply and demand-driven market growth affecting the market equilibrium prices for different GOs in different countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Wimmers & Reinhard Madlener, 2023. "The European Market for Guarantees of Origin for Green Electricity: A Scenario-Based Evaluation of Trading under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2023:i:1:p:104-:d:1306505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/1/104/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/1/104/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatras, Nicolas & Ma, Zheng & Duan, Hongbo & Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard, 2022. "A systematic review of electricity market liberalisation and its alignment with industrial consumer participation: A comparison between the Nordics and China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Ian H. Rowlands & Daniel Scott & Paul Parker, 2003. "Consumers and green electricity: profiling potential purchasers," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 36-48, January.
    3. Yuri Yevdokimov & Viktor Getalo & Dhirendra Shukla & Tugcan Sahin, 2019. "Measuring willingness to pay for electricity: The case of New Brunswick in Atlantic Canada," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(2), pages 292-303, March.
    4. Gianluca Grilli, 2017. "Renewable energy and willingness to pay: Evidences from a meta-analysis," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(1-2), pages 253-271.
    5. Borchers, Allison M. & Duke, Joshua M. & Parsons, George R., 2007. "Does willingness to pay for green energy differ by source?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3327-3334, June.
    6. Carlo Andrea Bollino, 2009. "The Willingness to Pay for Renewable Energy Sources: The Case of Italy with Socio-demographic Determinants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 81-96.
    7. Mark A. Andor, Manuel Frondel, and Colin Vance, 2017. "Germanys Energiewende: A Tale of Increasing Costs and Decreasing Willingness-To-Pay," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    8. Sundt, Swantje & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2015. "Consumers' willingness to pay for green electricity: A meta-analysis of the literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-8.
    9. Goodspeed, Timothy J., 1989. "A re-examination of the use of ability to pay taxes by local governments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 319-342, April.
    10. Markus Klimscheffskij & Thierry Van Craenenbroeck & Marko Lehtovaara & Diane Lescot & Angela Tschernutter & Claudia Raimundo & Dominik Seebach & Christof Timpe, 2015. "Residual Mix Calculation at the Heart of Reliable Electricity Disclosure in Europe—A Case Study on the Effect of the RE-DISS Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-30, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oerlemans, Leon A.G. & Chan, Kai-Ying & Volschenk, Jako, 2016. "Willingness to pay for green electricity: A review of the contingent valuation literature and its sources of error," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 875-885.
    2. Herbes, Carsten & Friege, Christian & Baldo, Davide & Mueller, Kai-Markus, 2015. "Willingness to pay lip service? Applying a neuroscience-based method to WTP for green electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 562-572.
    3. Wang, Yushi & Wu, Libo & Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Household's willingness to pay for renewable electricity: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Motz, Alessandra, 2021. "Consumer acceptance of the energy transition in Switzerland: The role of attitudes explained through a hybrid discrete choice model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Chaikumbung, Mayula, 2025. "The influence of national cultures on preferences and willingness to pay for renewable energy in Developing countries: A meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Soon, Jan-Jan & Ahmad, Siti-Aznor, 2015. "Willingly or grudgingly? A meta-analysis on the willingness-to-pay for renewable energy use," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 877-887.
    7. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Bradley T. & Williams, Ryan B., 2017. "Price volatility and residential electricity decisions: Experimental evidence on the convergence of energy generating source," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 428-437.
    8. Herbes, Carsten & Rilling, Benedikt & MacDonald, Scott & Boutin, Nathalie & Bigerna, Simona, 2020. "Are voluntary markets effective in replacing state-led support for the expansion of renewables? – A comparative analysis of voluntary green electricity markets in the UK, Germany, France and Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Dagher, Leila & Bird, Lori & Heeter, Jenny, 2017. "Residential green power demand in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1062-1068.
    10. Dalia Streimikiene & Tomas Balezentis & Ilona Alisauskaite-Seskiene & Gintare Stankuniene & Zaneta Simanaviciene, 2019. "A Review of Willingness to Pay Studies for Climate Change Mitigation in the Energy Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-38, April.
    11. Yang, Yingkui & Solgaard, Hans Stubbe & Haider, Wolfgang, 2016. "Wind, hydro or mixed renewable energy source: Preference for electricity products when the share of renewable energy increases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 521-531.
    12. Galzi, Pierre-Yves, 2023. "Do green electricity consumers contribute to the increase in electricity generation capacity from renewable energy sources? Evidence from France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    13. Gianluca Grilli, 2017. "Renewable energy and willingness to pay: Evidences from a meta-analysis," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(1-2), pages 253-271.
    14. Bakkensen, Laura & Schuler, Paul, 2020. "A preference for power: Willingness to pay for energy reliability versus fuel type in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Gracia, Azucena & Barreiro-Hurlé, Jesús & Pérez y Pérez, Luis, 2012. "Can renewable energy be financed with higher electricity prices? Evidence from a Spanish region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 784-794.
    16. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Brad & Williams, Ryan Blake, 2018. "Green is Good – The Impact of Information Nudges on the Adoption of Voluntary Green Power Plans," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266583, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    17. Will, Christian & Lehmann, Nico & Baumgartner, Nora & Feurer, Sven & Jochem, Patrick & Fichtner, Wolf, 2022. "Consumer understanding and evaluation of carbon-neutral electric vehicle charging services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    18. Simona Bigerna & Paolo Polinori, 2015. "Assessing the Determinants of Renewable Electricity Acceptance Integrating Meta-Analysis Regression and a Local Comprehensive Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-24, August.
    19. L. Mundaca & H. Moncreiff, 2021. "New Perspectives on Green Energy Defaults," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 357-383, September.
    20. Zorić, Jelena & Hrovatin, Nevenka, 2012. "Household willingness to pay for green electricity in Slovenia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 180-187.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2023:i:1:p:104-:d:1306505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.