IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i22p8439-d969813.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volume of Fuel Supplies to EU Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Izabela Dembińska

    (Faculty of Economics and Engineering of Transport, Maritime University of Szczecin, 70-507 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Agnieszka Barczak

    (Faculty of Economics, West Pomeranian University of Technology, 71-270 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Szopik-Depczyńska

    (Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Irena Dul

    (SEC (Szczecińska Energetyka Cieplna), 70-653 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Adam Koliński

    (Poznan School of Logistics, 61-755 Poznań, Poland)

  • Giuseppe Ioppolo

    (Department of Economics, University of Messina, 98122 Messina, Italy)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly a destructive factor, strongly affecting the economic fields. From the perspective of the countries affected by the pandemic, almost all sectors of the economy saw declines in economic indicators. First, the lockdown and its social consequences contributed to this. The increasing time perspective since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic implies increasingly more studies analyzing its impact on various economic spheres. The aim of the research is to determine the difference in the level of fuel supplies between a pandemic situation and a situation where a pandemic would not occur. We assumed that the pandemic is a determinant of the decline in fuel supplies. The subjects of the analysis were the following fuels: kerosene-type jet fuel, gas oil and diesel oil, motor gasoline, and oil products. The countries of the European Union were analyzed. Monthly data from 2015–2021 provided by Eurostat were used for the analyses. The forecasts for 2020–2021 were determined using the exponential smoothing method. The assumption was shown to be accurate in the case of kerosene-type jet fuel, gas oil, and diesel oil. In this case, there was a clear drop in the level of supplies. The analysis of forecasts shows that if it were not for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the years 2020–2021, in accordance with the forecasts obtained, approximately 31,495 thousand tons of kerosene-type jet fuel and 11,396 thousand tons of gas oil and diesel oil would have been additionally supplied to the EU countries. For oil products, supply volumes also decreased, but unlike previously mentioned fuels, supply levels had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. On the other hand, the forecast of deliveries indicates the volume of 95,683 thousand tons of oil products.

Suggested Citation

  • Izabela Dembińska & Agnieszka Barczak & Katarzyna Szopik-Depczyńska & Irena Dul & Adam Koliński & Giuseppe Ioppolo, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volume of Fuel Supplies to EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:22:p:8439-:d:969813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/22/8439/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/22/8439/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert G. Brown & Richard F. Meyer, 1961. "The Fundamental Theorem of Exponential Smoothing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(5), pages 673-685, October.
    2. Billah, Baki & King, Maxwell L. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 239-247.
    3. Smith, L. Vanessa & Tarui, Nori & Yamagata, Takashi, 2021. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Dariusz Tloczynski & Malgorzata Wach-Kloskowska & Sebastian Susmarski, 2021. "The Impact of COVID 19 on the Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in the Face of Changes in Air Traffic Service: Case Study of one of the Polish Airports," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 623-633.
    5. Richard S Gray & Mohammad Torshizi, 2021. "Update to agriculture, transportation, and the COVID‐19 crisis," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 281-289, June.
    6. Agnieszka Barczak & Izabela Dembinska & Lukasz Marzantowicz & Katarzyna Nowicka & Katarzyna Szopik-Depczynska & Tomasz Rostkowski, 2020. "The Impact of Unpredictable Factors on the Uncertainty’s Structure in the Management of Logistics Processes," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 186-200.
    7. Wan, Daoxia & Xue, Rui & Linnenluecke, Martina & Tian, Jinfang & Shan, Yuli, 2021. "The impact of investor attention during COVID-19 on investment in clean energy versus fossil fuel firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Singh, Sanjeet & Sharma, Gagan Deep & Apostu, Simona-Andreea & Bansal, Pooja, 2023. "Overcoming the shock of energy depletion for energy policy? Tracing the missing link between energy depletion, renewable energy development and decarbonization in the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Paolo Zeppini & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2023. "Does COVID-19 Help or Harm the Climate? Modelling Long-run Emissions under Climate and Stimulus Policies," GREDEG Working Papers 2023-09, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Irena Lacka & Blazej Supron, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Road Freight Transport Evidence from Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 319-333.
    4. Miklesh Yadav & Nandita Mishra & Shruti Ashok, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness of green bond with financial markets of European countries under OECD economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 609-631, February.
    5. Mohamed Elhefnawy & Ahmed Ragab & Mohamed-Salah Ouali, 2023. "Polygon generation and video-to-video translation for time-series prediction," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 261-279, January.
    6. Reham Alhindawi & Yousef Abu Nahleh & Arun Kumar & Nirajan Shiwakoti, 2020. "Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Road Transport Sector Based on Multivariate Regression and the Double Exponential Smoothing Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Benlagha, Noureddine & Omari, Salaheddine El, 2022. "Connectedness of stock markets with gold and oil: New evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    8. Bartosz Bieganowski & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024. "Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting," Working Papers 2024-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Lyu, Chen & Liu, Xiaoman & Wang, Zhen & Yang, Lu & Liu, Hao & Yang, Nan & Xu, Shaodong & Cao, Libin & Zhang, Zhe & Pang, Lingyun & Zhang, Li & Cai, Bofeng, 2023. "An emissions inventory using flight information reveals the long-term changes of aviation CO2 emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    10. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2023. "On the Disagreement of Forecasting Model Selection Criteria," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, June.
    11. Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith & Beaumont, Adrian, 2012. "Forecasting the intermittent demand for slow-moving inventories: A modelling approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 485-496.
    12. Ketter, W. & Collins, J. & Gini, M. & Gupta, A. & Schrater, P., 2007. "Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Multi-Agent Automated Exchanges," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-065-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    13. Zubarev, Andrey & Kirillova, Maria, 2022. "Оценивание Влияния Внешних Шоков На Российскую Экономику С Помощью Модели Gvar [Estimating the impact of external shocks on Russian economy: GVAR approach]," MPRA Paper 113762, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2022.
    14. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Pham, Linh & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Extreme directional spillovers between investor attention and green bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 186-210.
    16. Longyu Shi & Fengmei Yang & Lijie Gao, 2020. "The Allocation of Carbon Intensity Reduction Target by 2030 among Cities in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-14, November.
    17. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2021. "Does the COVID-19 lockdown improve global air quality? New cross-national evidence on its unintended consequences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Abdullahi Osman Ali & Jama Mohamed, 2022. "The optimal forecast model for consumer price index of Puntland State, Somalia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4549-4572, December.
    19. Wolfgang Ketter & John Collins & Maria Gini & Alok Gupta & Paul Schrater, 2012. "Real-Time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided by Economic Regimes," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 1263-1283, December.
    20. Hsiang-Hsi Liu & Fu-Hsiang Kuo, 2017. "The Operating Efficiency under the Decreasing Rate of School Students for Public and Private High Schools in Xindian District of New Taipei City: Bootstrap DEA Model," International Journal of Business Administration, International Journal of Business Administration, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(7), pages 98-110, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:22:p:8439-:d:969813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.