IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i5p1487-d513289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Charging Demand of Electric Vehicles Using Time-Series Models

Author

Listed:
  • Yunsun Kim

    (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Korea)

  • Sahm Kim

    (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Korea)

Abstract

This study compared the methods used to forecast increases in power consumption caused by the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs). An excellent model for each region was proposed using multiple scaled geographical datasets over two years. EV charging volumes are influenced by various factors, including the condition of a vehicle, the battery’s state-of-charge (SOC), and the distance to the destination. However, power suppliers cannot easily access this information due to privacy issues. Despite a lack of individual information, this study compared various modeling techniques, including trigonometric exponential smoothing state space (i.e., Trigonometric, Box–Cox, Auto-Regressive-Moving-Average (ARMA), Trend, and Seasonality (TBATS)), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling, based on past values and exogenous variables. The effect of exogenous variables was evaluated in macro- and micro-scale geographical areas, and the importance of historic data was verified. The basic statistics regarding the number of charging stations and the volume of charging in each region are expected to aid the formulation of a method that can be used by power suppliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunsun Kim & Sahm Kim, 2021. "Forecasting Charging Demand of Electric Vehicles Using Time-Series Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:1487-:d:513289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/5/1487/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/5/1487/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Jing & Liu, Yongqian & Lv, Guoliang & Han, Shuang & Alfonzo, Ian Emmanuel Gonzalez, 2020. "EV charging load simulation and forecasting considering traffic jam and weather to support the integration of renewables and EVs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 623-641.
    2. Juncheng Zhu & Zhile Yang & Monjur Mourshed & Yuanjun Guo & Yimin Zhou & Yan Chang & Yanjie Wei & Shengzhong Feng, 2019. "Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Majidpour, Mostafa & Qiu, Charlie & Chu, Peter & Pota, Hemanshu R. & Gadh, Rajit, 2016. "Forecasting the EV charging load based on customer profile or station measurement?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 134-141.
    4. Tan, Bifei & Chen, Haoyong, 2020. "Multi-objective energy management of multiple microgrids under random electric vehicle charging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. Yiqi Lu & Yongpan Li & Da Xie & Enwei Wei & Xianlu Bao & Huafeng Chen & Xiancheng Zhong, 2018. "The Application of Improved Random Forest Algorithm on the Prediction of Electric Vehicle Charging Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Arias, Mariz B. & Kim, Myungchin & Bae, Sungwoo, 2017. "Prediction of electric vehicle charging-power demand in realistic urban traffic networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 738-753.
    8. Alexis Gerossier & Robin Girard & George Kariniotakis, 2019. "Modeling and Forecasting Electric Vehicle Consumption Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Yunyan Li & Yuansheng Huang & Meimei Zhang, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Niche Immunity Lion Algorithm and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Arias, Mariz B. & Bae, Sungwoo, 2016. "Electric vehicle charging demand forecasting model based on big data technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 327-339.
    11. Seongpil Cheon & Suk-Ju Kang, 2017. "An Electric Power Consumption Analysis System for the Installation of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naoui Mohamed & Flah Aymen & Abdullah Altamimi & Zafar A. Khan & Sbita Lassaad, 2022. "Power Management and Control of a Hybrid Electric Vehicle Based on Photovoltaic, Fuel Cells, and Battery Energy Sources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Paolo Lazzeroni & Brunella Caroleo & Maurizio Arnone & Cristiana Botta, 2021. "A Simplified Approach to Estimate EV Charging Demand in Urban Area: An Italian Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Anna Borucka, 2023. "Seasonal Methods of Demand Forecasting in the Supply Chain as Support for the Company’s Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Abdullah-Al-Nahid, Syed & Jamal, Taskin & Aziz, Tareq & Bhuiyan, Ashraf Hossain & Khan, Tafsir Ahmed, 2023. "Additive linear modelling and genetic algorithm based electric vehicle outlook and policy formulation for decarbonizing the future transport sector of Bangladesh," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 21-46.
    5. Young-Eun Jeon & Suk-Bok Kang & Jung-In Seo, 2022. "Hybrid Predictive Modeling for Charging Demand Prediction of Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Sakar Hasan Hamza & Qingna Li, 2023. "The Dynamics of US Gasoline Demand and Its Prediction: An Extended Dynamic Model Averaging Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.
    7. Klemen Deželak & Klemen Sredenšek & Sebastijan Seme, 2023. "Energy Consumption and Grid Interaction Analysis of Electric Vehicles Based on Particle Swarm Optimisation Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-15, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yvenn Amara-Ouali & Yannig Goude & Pascal Massart & Jean-Michel Poggi & Hui Yan, 2021. "A Review of Electric Vehicle Load Open Data and Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-35, April.
    2. Zhang, Jing & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Zhang, Haoran & Lv, Guoliang, 2020. "Daily electric vehicle charging load profiles considering demographics of vehicle users," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    3. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Munseok Chang & Sungwoo Bae & Gilhwan Cha & Jaehyun Yoo, 2021. "Aggregated Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Power Demand Analysis and Forecast Based on LSTM Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Wang, Shengyou & Zhuge, Chengxiang & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Pinxi & Yang, Xiong & Wang, Shiqi, 2023. "Short-term electric vehicle charging demand prediction: A deep learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    6. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Jing & Liu, Yongqian & Lv, Guoliang & Han, Shuang & Alfonzo, Ian Emmanuel Gonzalez, 2020. "EV charging load simulation and forecasting considering traffic jam and weather to support the integration of renewables and EVs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 623-641.
    7. Mu Li & Yingqi Liu & Weizhong Yue, 2022. "Evolutionary Game of Actors in China’s Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Li, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenpo & Zhang, Lei & Sun, Fengchun & Cui, Dingsong & Hecht, Christopher & Figgener, Jan & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2023. "Electric vehicle behavior modeling and applications in vehicle-grid integration: An overview," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    9. Byungsung Lee & Haesung Lee & Hyun Ahn, 2020. "Improving Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Through Missing Data Imputation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Jiaan Zhang & Chenyu Liu & Leijiao Ge, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Model of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Based on MCCNN-TCN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
    11. Wang, Yue & Shi, Jianmai & Wang, Rui & Liu, Zhong & Wang, Ling, 2018. "Siting and sizing of fast charging stations in highway network with budget constraint," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1255-1271.
    12. Shepero, Mahmoud & Munkhammar, Joakim & Widén, Joakim & Bishop, Justin D.K. & Boström, Tobias, 2018. "Modeling of photovoltaic power generation and electric vehicles charging on city-scale: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 61-71.
    13. Prince Aduama & Zhibo Zhang & Ameena S. Al-Sumaiti, 2023. "Multi-Feature Data Fusion-Based Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Using a Deep Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Zhu, Lijing & Zhang, Qi & Lu, Huihui & Li, Hailong & Li, Yan & McLellan, Benjamin & Pan, Xunzhang, 2017. "Study on crowdfunding’s promoting effect on the expansion of electric vehicle charging piles based on game theory analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 238-248.
    15. Shi, Jiaqi & Liu, Nian & Huang, Yujing & Ma, Liya, 2022. "An Edge Computing-oriented Net Power Forecasting for PV-assisted Charging Station: Model Complexity and Forecasting Accuracy Trade-off," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    16. Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh & Michela Longo & Federica Foiadelli, 2021. "Estimation Model of Total Energy Consumptions of Electrical Vehicles under Different Driving Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-15, February.
    17. Minfeng Wu & Wen Chen, 2022. "Forecast of Electric Vehicle Sales in the World and China Based on PCA-GRNN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    18. Namhyun Ahn & So Yeon Jo & Suk-Ju Kang, 2019. "Constraint-Aware Electricity Consumption Estimation for Prevention of Overload by Electric Vehicle Charging Station," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    19. Sanchari Deb, 2021. "Machine Learning for Solving Charging Infrastructure Planning Problems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    20. Neil Stephen Lopez & Adrian Allana & Jose Bienvenido Manuel Biona, 2021. "Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Demand with the Effect of Increasing EVSEs: A Discrete Event Simulation-Based Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:1487-:d:513289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.