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Comparison of electric vehicle load forecasting across different spatial levels with incorporated uncertainty estimation

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  • Khan, Waqas
  • Somers, Ward
  • Walker, Shalika
  • de Bont, Kevin
  • Van der Velden, Joep
  • Zeiler, Wim

Abstract

Accurate load forecasting is important to mitigate the negative impact of Electric vehicle integration into the existing grid. Previous studies mostly focus on individual or aggregated levels without specifying the impact of accuracy due to the selection of different spatial levels and lack the integration of uncertainty estimation in the forecasting models. To address these issues, this study compares the predictive performance of a Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks at different spatial levels with 15-min resolution data across case studies (i) with 2 Electric Vehicles charging poles and 3 users, (ii) with 75 charging poles, 8 charging rails and 70 users. The outcome shows that forecasting the Electric Vehicle load of smaller case studies will require the presence or calendar information of users. Whereas in case studies with more than 10 charging piles, the features “previous week's power”, “hour of the day” and the “number of connections” can achieve similar results. The results also showed that the aggregated forecasting was more accurate than individual charging piles. Moreover, the uncertainty plot generated for a 90% prediction interval showed that the uncertainty estimates were more reliable for the case study with large numbers of Electric Vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Waqas & Somers, Ward & Walker, Shalika & de Bont, Kevin & Van der Velden, Joep & Zeiler, Wim, 2023. "Comparison of electric vehicle load forecasting across different spatial levels with incorporated uncertainty estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:283:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223026075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huo, Yingning & Xing, Haowei & Yang, Yi & Yu, Heyang & Wan, Muchun & Geng, Guangchao & Jiang, Quanyuan, 2025. "Real-time estimation of aggregated electric vehicle charging load based on representative meter data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    2. Boyu Xiang & Zhengyang Zhou & Shukun Gao & Guoping Lei & Zefu Tan, 2024. "A Planning Method for Charging Station Based on Long-Term Charging Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Chen, Yunxiao & Lin, Chaojing & Zhang, Yilan & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren, 2024. "Day-ahead load forecast based on Conv2D-GRU_SC aimed to adapt to steep changes in load," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    4. Shen, Xiaonan & Shen, Junjie & Zhang, Yuting & Wu, Haoyu & Wang, Yang, 2025. "A multi-source feature engineering-enhanced framework for mid-to-long-term EV charging load forecasting: Integrating self-adaptive optimization and BiLSTM-iTransformer predictor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    5. Maher Alaraj & Mohammed Radi & Elaf Alsisi & Munir Majdalawieh & Mohamed Darwish, 2025. "Machine Learning-Based Electric Vehicle Charging Demand Forecasting: A Systematized Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-92, September.
    6. Guo, Hongxia & Chen, Lingxuan & Wang, Zhaocai & Li, Lin, 2025. "Day-ahead prediction of electric vehicle charging demand based on quadratic decomposition and dual attention mechanisms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 381(C).
    7. Waqar, Muhammad & Kim, Yong-Woon & Byun, Yung-Cheol, 2026. "A hybrid deep learning framework for multivariate energy forecasting and peak load prediction in electric vehicle charging infrastructure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 402(PB).
    8. Hermans, B.A.L.M. & Walker, S. & Ludlage, J.H.A. & Özkan, L., 2024. "Model predictive control of vehicle charging stations in grid-connected microgrids: An implementation study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).

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