IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i5p1328-d508176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Carbon Price Prediction Model Based on the Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Influencing Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Jianguo Zhou

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 689 Huadian Road, Baoding 071000, China)

  • Shiguo Wang

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 689 Huadian Road, Baoding 071000, China)

Abstract

Carbon emission reduction is now a global issue, and the prediction of carbon trading market prices is an important means of reducing emissions. This paper innovatively proposes a second decomposition carbon price prediction model based on the nuclear extreme learning machine optimized by the Sparrow search algorithm and considers the structural and nonstructural influencing factors in the model. Firstly, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to decompose the carbon price data and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose Intrinsic Mode Function 1 (IMF1), and the decomposition of carbon prices is used as part of the input of the prediction model. Then, a maximum correlation minimum redundancy algorithm (mRMR) is used to preprocess the structural and nonstructural factors as another part of the input of the prediction model. After the Sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimizes the relevant parameters of Extreme Learning Machine with Kernel (KELM), the model is used for prediction. Finally, in the empirical study, this paper selects two typical carbon trading markets in China for analysis. In the Guangdong and Hubei markets, the EMD-VMD-SSA-KELM model is superior to other models. It shows that this model has good robustness and validity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianguo Zhou & Shiguo Wang, 2021. "A Carbon Price Prediction Model Based on the Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Influencing Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:1328-:d:508176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/5/1328/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/5/1328/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oestreich, A. Marcel & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2015. "Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 294-308.
    2. Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Xin & Kang, Wanglin, 2019. "Forecasting carbon prices in the Shenzhen market, China: The role of mixed-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 69-76.
    3. Bangzhu Zhu, 2012. "A Novel Multiscale Ensemble Carbon Price Prediction Model Integrating Empirical Mode Decomposition, Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    5. Guoqiang Sun & Tong Chen & Zhinong Wei & Yonghui Sun & Haixiang Zang & Sheng Chen, 2016. "A Carbon Price Forecasting Model Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Spiking Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
    7. Sun, Wei & Huang, Chenchen, 2020. "A novel carbon price prediction model combines the secondary decomposition algorithm and the long short-term memory network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & Wu, Zhanchi & Zhang, Tao & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Forecasting carbon price using empirical mode decomposition and evolutionary least squares support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 521-530.
    9. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Muûls & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2016. "The Impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on Regulated Firms: What Is the Evidence after Ten Years?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 129-148.
    10. Zhu, Jiaming & Wu, Peng & Chen, Huayou & Liu, Jinpei & Zhou, Ligang, 2019. "Carbon price forecasting with variational mode decomposition and optimal combined model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 519(C), pages 140-158.
    11. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 517-524.
    12. Wei Sun & Junjian Zhang, 2020. "Carbon Price Prediction Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Improved Bat Algorithm Considering Energy Price Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Zhao, Xin & Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Kang, Wanglin, 2018. "Usefulness of economic and energy data at different frequencies for carbon price forecasting in the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 132-141.
    14. Wei Sun & Ming Duan, 2019. "Analysis and Forecasting of the Carbon Price in China’s Regional Carbon Markets Based on Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Phase Space Reconstruction, and an Improved Extreme Learning Machin," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, January.
    15. Sun, Na & Zhou, Jianzhong & Chen, Lu & Jia, Benjun & Tayyab, Muhammad & Peng, Tian, 2018. "An adaptive dynamic short-term wind speed forecasting model using secondary decomposition and an improved regularized extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 939-957.
    16. Alexander Zeitlberger & Alexander Brauneis, 2016. "Modeling carbon spot and futures price returns with GARCH and Markov switching GARCH models," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 149-176, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Houjian & Li, Qingman & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Do green bonds and economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon price? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Yunhe Cheng & Beibei Hu, 2022. "Forecasting Regional Carbon Prices in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and a Hybrid Kernel-Based Extreme Learning Machine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Li, Guohui & Ning, Zhiyuan & Yang, Hong & Gao, Lipeng, 2022. "A new carbon price prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    4. Houjian Li & Xinya Huang & Deheng Zhou & Andi Cao & Mengying Su & Yufeng Wang & Lili Guo, 2022. "Forecasting Carbon Price in China: A Multimodel Comparison," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-16, May.
    5. Dan Wang & Juheng Yang, 2022. "Carbon Neutrality Strategies for Chinese International Oil Company Based on the Rapid Development of Global Carbon Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Xiaolu Wei & Hongbing Ouyang, 2023. "Forecasting Carbon Price Using Double Shrinkage Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Po Yun & Chen Zhang & Yaqi Wu & Yu Yang, 2022. "Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Price Using a Time-Varying High-Order Moment Hybrid Model of NAGARCHSK and Gated Recurrent Unit Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Yuriy Bilan & Serhiy Kozmenko & Alex Plastun, 2022. "Price Forecasting in Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-6, December.
    9. Lei Su & Wenjiao Yu & Zhongxuan Zhou, 2023. "Global Trends of Carbon Finance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    10. Beibei Hu & Yunhe Cheng, 2023. "Prediction of Regional Carbon Price in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and Nonlinear Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jianguo Zhou & Dongfeng Chen, 2021. "Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Improved CEEMDAN and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Sparrow Search Algorithm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Wang, Piao & Tao, Zhifu & Liu, Jinpei & Chen, Huayou, 2023. "Improving the forecasting accuracy of interval-valued carbon price from a novel multi-scale framework with outliers detection: An improved interval-valued time series analysis mode," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Wang, Minggang & Zhu, Mengrui & Tian, Lixin, 2022. "A novel framework for carbon price forecasting with uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Jianguo Zhou & Qiqi Wang, 2021. "Forecasting Carbon Price with Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Optimized Extreme Learning Machine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Huang, Yumeng & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "A hybrid model for carbon price forecastingusing GARCH and long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Wen Zhang & Zhibin Wu, 2022. "Optimal hybrid framework for carbon price forecasting using time series analysis and least squares support vector machine," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 615-632, April.
    7. Jianguo Zhou & Xuejing Huo & Xiaolei Xu & Yushuo Li, 2019. "Forecasting the Carbon Price Using Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by the Grey Wolf Optimizer Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Gao, Feng & Shao, Xueyan, 2022. "A novel interval decomposition ensemble model for interval carbon price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Houjian Li & Xinya Huang & Deheng Zhou & Andi Cao & Mengying Su & Yufeng Wang & Lili Guo, 2022. "Forecasting Carbon Price in China: A Multimodel Comparison," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Yumin Li & Ruiqi Yang & Xiaoman Wang & Jiaming Zhu & Nan Song, 2023. "Carbon Price Combination Forecasting Model Based on Lasso Regression and Optimal Integration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Li, Guohui & Ning, Zhiyuan & Yang, Hong & Gao, Lipeng, 2022. "A new carbon price prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    12. Zhu, Jiaming & Wu, Peng & Chen, Huayou & Liu, Jinpei & Zhou, Ligang, 2019. "Carbon price forecasting with variational mode decomposition and optimal combined model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 519(C), pages 140-158.
    13. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Zhang, Tao & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "A novel multiscale nonlinear ensemble leaning paradigm for carbon price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 143-157.
    14. Ding, Lili & Zhang, Rui & Zhao, Xin, 2024. "Forecasting carbon price in China unified carbon market using a novel hybrid method with three-stage algorithm and long short-term memory neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    15. Qi, Shaozhou & Cheng, Shihan & Tan, Xiujie & Feng, Shenghao & Zhou, Qi, 2022. "Predicting China's carbon price based on a multi-scale integrated model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    16. Xing Zhang & Chongchong Zhang & Zhuoqun Wei, 2019. "Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Multi-Resolution Singular Value Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by the Moth–Flame Optimization Algorithm Considering Energy and Economic Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Wei Sun & Junjian Zhang, 2020. "Carbon Price Prediction Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Improved Bat Algorithm Considering Energy Price Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, July.
    18. Po Yun & Chen Zhang & Yaqi Wu & Yu Yang, 2022. "Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Price Using a Time-Varying High-Order Moment Hybrid Model of NAGARCHSK and Gated Recurrent Unit Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-19, January.
    19. Sun, Wei & Zhang, Chongchong, 2018. "Analysis and forecasting of the carbon price using multi—resolution singular value decomposition and extreme learning machine optimized by adaptive whale optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1354-1371.
    20. Wang, Jujie & Zhuang, Zhenzhen & Gao, Dongming, 2023. "An enhanced hybrid model based on multiple influencing factors and divide-conquer strategy for carbon price prediction," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:5:p:1328-:d:508176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.