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A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation

Author

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  • Mohamed Lotfi

    (Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
    INESC TEC, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Mohammad Javadi

    (INESC TEC, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Gerardo J. Osório

    (C-MAST, University of Beira Interior, 6201-001 Covilha, Portugal)

  • Cláudio Monteiro

    (Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • João P. S. Catalão

    (Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
    INESC TEC, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

Abstract

A novel ensemble algorithm based on kernel density estimation (KDE) is proposed to forecast distributed generation (DG) from renewable energy sources (RES). The proposed method relies solely on publicly available historical input variables (e.g., meteorological forecasts) and the corresponding local output (e.g., recorded power generation). Given a new case (with forecasted meteorological variables), the resulting power generation is forecasted. This is performed by calculating a KDE-based similarity index to determine a set of most similar cases from the historical dataset. Then, the outputs of the most similar cases are used to calculate an ensemble prediction. The method is tested using historical weather forecasts and recorded generation of a PV installation in Portugal. Despite only being given averaged data as input, the algorithm is shown to be capable of predicting uncertainties associated with high frequency weather variations, outperforming deterministic predictions based on solar irradiance forecasts. Moreover, the algorithm is shown to outperform a neural network (NN) in most test cases while being exceptionally faster (32 times). Given that the proposed model only relies on public locally-metered data, it is a convenient tool for DG owners/operators to effectively forecast their expected generation without depending on private/proprietary data or divulging their own.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Lotfi & Mohammad Javadi & Gerardo J. Osório & Cláudio Monteiro & João P. S. Catalão, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:216-:d:304430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & Yoonsung Shin & Sanghyun Choi & Aziz Nasridinov, 2022. "Feasibility Study on the Influence of Data Partition Strategies on Ensemble Deep Learning: The Case of Forecasting Power Generation in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Kasun Chandrarathna & Arman Edalati & AhmadReza Fourozan tabar, 2020. "Forecasting Short-term load using Econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution," Papers 2009.13595, arXiv.org.
    5. Giorgio Guariso & Giuseppe Nunnari & Matteo Sangiorgio, 2020. "Multi-Step Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Domain Adaptation of Deep Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Chao Zhou & Bing Gao & Haiyue Yang & Xudong Zhang & Jiaqi Liu & Lingling Li, 2022. "Junction Temperature Prediction of Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistors in Wind Power Systems Based on an Improved Honey Badger Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Miguel López Santos & Xela García-Santiago & Fernando Echevarría Camarero & Gonzalo Blázquez Gil & Pablo Carrasco Ortega, 2022. "Application of Temporal Fusion Transformer for Day-Ahead PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    8. Liguori, Antonio & Markovic, Romana & Ferrando, Martina & Frisch, Jérôme & Causone, Francesco & van Treeck, Christoph, 2023. "Augmenting energy time-series for data-efficient imputation of missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    9. Mirosław Kornatka & Anna Gawlak, 2021. "An Analysis of the Operation of Distribution Networks Using Kernel Density Estimators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, October.
    10. Puah, Boon Keat & Chong, Lee Wai & Wong, Yee Wan & Begam, K.M. & Khan, Nafizah & Juman, Mohammed Ayoub & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar, 2021. "A regression unsupervised incremental learning algorithm for solar irradiance prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 908-925.
    11. Song, Xiaodong & Johnson, Paul & Duck, Peter, 2021. "A novel combination of Mycielski–Markov, regime switching and jump diffusion models for solar energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    12. Mansouri, Seyed Amir & Ahmarinejad, Amir & Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh & Catalão, João P.S., 2020. "Two-stage stochastic framework for energy hubs planning considering demand response programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    13. Mohammad Rayati & Pasquale De Falco & Daniela Proto & Mokhtar Bozorg & Mauro Carpita, 2021. "Generation Data of Synthetic High Frequency Solar Irradiance for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Electrical Distribution Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    14. Wen-Chang Tsai & Chia-Sheng Tu & Chih-Ming Hong & Whei-Min Lin, 2023. "A Review of State-of-the-Art and Short-Term Forecasting Models for Solar PV Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-30, July.
    15. Zhuoyuan Lyu & Ying Shen & Yu Zhao & Tao Hu, 2023. "Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Conformer-GLaplace-SDAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-18, October.
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