A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Solar Power Forecasting Based on Kernel Density Estimation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018.
"Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting,"
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
- Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018.
"Electricity price forecasting,"
HSC Research Reports
HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
- Konstantinos Kotsalos & Ismael Miranda & Nuno Silva & Helder Leite, 2019. "A Horizon Optimization Control Framework for the Coordinated Operation of Multiple Distributed Energy Resources in Low Voltage Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-27, March.
- Gerardo J. Osório & Mohamed Lotfi & Miadreza Shafie-khah & Vasco M. A. Campos & João P. S. Catalão, 2018. "Hybrid Forecasting Model for Short-Term Electricity Market Prices with Renewable Integration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
- Antonio Bracale & Guido Carpinelli & Pasquale De Falco, 2019. "Developing and Comparing Different Strategies for Combining Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasts in an Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
- Ahmad, Muhammad Waseem & Mourshed, Monjur & Rezgui, Yacine, 2018. "Tree-based ensemble methods for predicting PV power generation and their comparison with support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 465-474.
- Matthew Gough & Mohamed Lotfi & Rui Castro & Amos Madhlopa & Azeem Khan & João P. S. Catalão, 2019. "Urban Wind Resource Assessment: A Case Study on Cape Town," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Lu, Xin & Qiu, Jing & Lei, Gang & Zhu, Jianguo, 2022. "Scenarios modelling for forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Case studies in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
- Xinghua Wang & Fucheng Zhong & Yilin Xu & Xixian Liu & Zezhong Li & Jianan Liu & Zhuoli Zhao, 2023. "Extraction and Joint Method of PV–Load Typical Scenes Considering Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-19, September.
- Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & Yoonsung Shin & Sanghyun Choi & Aziz Nasridinov, 2022. "Feasibility Study on the Influence of Data Partition Strategies on Ensemble Deep Learning: The Case of Forecasting Power Generation in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
- Kasun Chandrarathna & Arman Edalati & AhmadReza Fourozan tabar, 2020. "Forecasting Short-term load using Econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution," Papers 2009.13595, arXiv.org.
- Giorgio Guariso & Giuseppe Nunnari & Matteo Sangiorgio, 2020. "Multi-Step Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Domain Adaptation of Deep Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, August.
- Chao Zhou & Bing Gao & Haiyue Yang & Xudong Zhang & Jiaqi Liu & Lingling Li, 2022. "Junction Temperature Prediction of Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistors in Wind Power Systems Based on an Improved Honey Badger Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
- Miguel López Santos & Xela García-Santiago & Fernando Echevarría Camarero & Gonzalo Blázquez Gil & Pablo Carrasco Ortega, 2022. "Application of Temporal Fusion Transformer for Day-Ahead PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
- Liguori, Antonio & Markovic, Romana & Ferrando, Martina & Frisch, Jérôme & Causone, Francesco & van Treeck, Christoph, 2023. "Augmenting energy time-series for data-efficient imputation of missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
- Mirosław Kornatka & Anna Gawlak, 2021. "An Analysis of the Operation of Distribution Networks Using Kernel Density Estimators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, October.
- Puah, Boon Keat & Chong, Lee Wai & Wong, Yee Wan & Begam, K.M. & Khan, Nafizah & Juman, Mohammed Ayoub & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar, 2021. "A regression unsupervised incremental learning algorithm for solar irradiance prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 908-925.
- Song, Xiaodong & Johnson, Paul & Duck, Peter, 2021. "A novel combination of Mycielski–Markov, regime switching and jump diffusion models for solar energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
- Mansouri, Seyed Amir & Ahmarinejad, Amir & Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh & Catalão, João P.S., 2020. "Two-stage stochastic framework for energy hubs planning considering demand response programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
- Mohammad Rayati & Pasquale De Falco & Daniela Proto & Mokhtar Bozorg & Mauro Carpita, 2021. "Generation Data of Synthetic High Frequency Solar Irradiance for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Electrical Distribution Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
- Wen-Chang Tsai & Chia-Sheng Tu & Chih-Ming Hong & Whei-Min Lin, 2023. "A Review of State-of-the-Art and Short-Term Forecasting Models for Solar PV Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-30, July.
- Zhuoyuan Lyu & Ying Shen & Yu Zhao & Tao Hu, 2023. "Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Conformer-GLaplace-SDAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-18, October.
- Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
- N. Yogambal Jayalakshmi & R. Shankar & Umashankar Subramaniam & I. Baranilingesan & Alagar Karthick & Balasubramaniam Stalin & Robbi Rahim & Aritra Ghosh, 2021. "Novel Multi-Time Scale Deep Learning Algorithm for Solar Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Uniejewski, Bartosz & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2023.
"LASSO principal component averaging: A fully automated approach for point forecast pooling,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1839-1852.
- Bartosz Uniejewski & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "LASSO Principal Component Averaging -- a fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," Papers 2207.04794, arXiv.org.
- Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021.
"Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
- Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Regularized Quantile Regression Averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2019.
"Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
- Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Averaging predictive distributions across calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/19/08, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, revised 06 Jul 2019.
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020.
"PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA forecast averaging - predicting day-ahead and intraday electricity prices," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/02, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
- Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
- Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023.
"Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
- Anna Gloria Billé & Angelica Gianfreda & Filippo Del Grosso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices with Expert, Linear and Non-Linear Models," Working Paper series 21-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Zhang, Hong & Nguyen, Hoang & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Pradhan, Biswajeet & Mai, Ngoc-Luan & Vu, Diep-Anh, 2021. "Proposing two novel hybrid intelligence models for forecasting copper price based on extreme learning machine and meta-heuristic algorithms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Westgaard, Sjur & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Negash, Ahlmahz & Botterud, Audun & Bogaard, Katinka & Verling, Trude Haugsvaer, 2021. "Performing price scenario analysis and stress testing using quantile regression: A case study of the Californian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
- Zoran Gligorić & Svetlana Štrbac Savić & Aleksandra Grujić & Milanka Negovanović & Omer Musić, 2018. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Model Using Interval-Valued Autoregressive Process," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
- Maciej Kostrzewski & Jadwiga Kostrzewska, 2021. "The Impact of Forecasting Jumps on Forecasting Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
- Raimund M. Kovacevic, 2019. "Valuation and pricing of electricity delivery contracts: the producer’s view," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 275(2), pages 421-460, April.
- John Boland & Adrian Grantham, 2018. "Nonparametric Conditional Heteroscedastic Hourly Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Radiation," J, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.
- Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
- Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.
- Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
- Nazila Pourhaji & Mohammad Asadpour & Ali Ahmadian & Ali Elkamel, 2022. "The Investigation of Monthly/Seasonal Data Clustering Impact on Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Accuracy: Ontario Province Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, March.
- Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
- Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020.
"Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Working Papers No 2/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Papers 1801.01093, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
- Ismael Ahrazem Dfuf & José Manuel Mira McWilliams & María Camino González Fernández, 2019. "Multi-Output Conditional Inference Trees Applied to the Electricity Market: Variable Importance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
More about this item
Keywords
forecasting; ensemble methods; kernel density estimation; smart grids; distributed generation; solar PV;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:216-:d:304430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.