IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i18p4731-d411939.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Low-Carbon Energy Governance: Scenarios to Accelerate the Change in the Energy Matrix in Ecuador

Author

Listed:
  • Flavio R. Arroyo M.

    (Systems Engineering and Automatic Control, School of Industrial Engineering, Paseo del Cauce s/n, University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain
    Faculty of Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Av. Universitaria, Central University of Ecuador, Quito 170129, Ecuador)

  • Luis J. Miguel

    (Systems Engineering and Automatic Control, School of Industrial Engineering, Paseo del Cauce s/n, University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain
    Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, School of Industrial Engineering, Paseo del Cauce s/n, University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain)

Abstract

This article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO 2 emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different projected scenarios, with oil as the most important source of energy. The increase observed in final energy consumption was mainly associated with the transport and industry sectors. A reduction in energy intensity was projected for the different scenarios, which could be associated with the projected economic growth. The results obtained were used to build a proposal for energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions. The proposed changes to the national energy matrix could be the factors that will contribute most to the achievement of carbon emission reductions projected by the different scenarios; changes in the energy matrix are mainly associated with the development of projects to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies, mainly hydropower.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2020. "Low-Carbon Energy Governance: Scenarios to Accelerate the Change in the Energy Matrix in Ecuador," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4731-:d:411939
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4731/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4731/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Ching-Chih, 2010. "A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3533-3537, November.
    2. Abbas Mardani & Dalia Streimikiene & Mehrbakhsh Nilashi & Daniel Arias Aranda & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Ahmad Jusoh, 2018. "Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and CO 2 Emissions in G20 Countries: Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    4. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 813-822.
    5. Gao, Anton Ming-Zhi & Fan, Chien-Te & Liao, Chao-Ning, 2018. "Application of German energy transition in Taiwan: A critical review of unique electricity liberalisation as a core strategy to achieve renewable energy growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 644-654.
    6. Morlet, Clémence & Keirstead, James, 2013. "A comparative analysis of urban energy governance in four European cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 852-863.
    7. Hildingsson, Roger & Johansson, Bengt, 2016. "Governing low-carbon energy transitions in sustainable ways: Potential synergies and conflicts between climate and environmental policy objectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 245-252.
    8. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Sharif Hossain, Md., 2011. "Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6991-6999.
    10. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2020. "The Role of Renewable Energies for the Sustainable Energy Governance and Environmental Policies for the Mitigation of Climate Change in Ecuador," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    11. Kosow, Hannah & Gaßner, Robert, 2008. "Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 39, number 39.
    12. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani & Drupady, Ira Martina & D’Agostino, Anthony L., 2011. "Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5846-5853.
    13. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    14. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Saunders, Harry, 2014. "Competing policy packages and the complexity of energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 641-651.
    15. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2013. "An international assessment of energy security performance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    16. Munir, Qaiser & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A cross-sectional dependence approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Mun Mun Ahmed & Koji Shimada, 2019. "The Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption on Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Emerging and Developing Economies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-15, July.
    18. Everett, Tim & Ishwaran, Mallika & Ansaloni, Gian Paolo & Rubin, Alex, 2010. "Economic growth and the environment," MPRA Paper 23585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Downie, Christian, 2017. "Business actors, political resistance, and strategies for policymakers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 583-592.
    20. Flavio Arroyo & Luis Javier Miguel, 2019. "Analysis of Energy Demand Scenarios in Ecuador: National Government Policy Perspectives and Global Trend to Reduce CO2 Emissions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 364-374.
    21. Simsek, Yeliz & Lorca, Álvaro & Urmee, Tania & Bahri, Parisa A. & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2019. "Review and assessment of energy policy developments in Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 87-101.
    22. Acheampong, Alex O., 2018. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption: What causes what and where?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-692.
    23. Florini, Ann & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2009. "Who governs energy? The challenges facing global energy governance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5239-5248, December.
    24. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
    25. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    26. Ren, Jingzheng & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Quantifying, measuring, and strategizing energy security: Determining the most meaningful dimensions and metrics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 838-849.
    27. Janthana Kunchornrat & Aumnad Phdungsilp, 2012. "Multi-Level Governance of Low-Carbon Energy Systems in Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, February.
    28. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    29. Chang, Ching-Chih & Soruco Carballo, Claudia Fabiola, 2011. "Energy conservation and sustainable economic growth: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4215-4221, July.
    30. Helm, Dieter, 2014. "The European framework for energy and climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 29-35.
    31. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    32. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Bryan, Elizabeth & Ringler, Claudia & Mekonnen, Dawit & Rosegrant, Mark, 2018. "Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-172.
    33. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Icaza & David Vallejo-Ramirez & Carlos Guerrero Granda & Edwin Marín, 2024. "Challenges, Roadmaps and Smart Energy Transition towards 100% Renewable Energy Markets in American Islands: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Wang, Shubin & Zhao, Erlong & Razzaq, Hafiz Kashif, 2022. "Dynamic role of renewable energy efficiency, natural resources, and climate technologies in realizing environmental sustainability: Implications for China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1095-1104.
    3. Bjarnhedinn Gudlaugsson & Dana Abi Ghanem & Huda Dawood & Gobind Pillai & Michael Short, 2022. "A Qualitative Based Causal-Loop Diagram for Understanding Policy Design Challenges for a Sustainable Transition Pathway: The Case of Tees Valley Region, UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    4. Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian & Fontalvo, Javier & Martí-Herrero, Jaime & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2022. "Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2020. "The Role of Renewable Energies for the Sustainable Energy Governance and Environmental Policies for the Mitigation of Climate Change in Ecuador," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Tzen-Ying Ling & Wei-Kai Hung & Chun-Tsu Lin & Michael Lu, 2020. "Dealing with Green Gentrification and Vertical Green-Related Urban Well-Being: A Contextual-Based Design Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    4. Zaman, Rafia & Brudermann, Thomas, 2018. "Energy governance in the context of energy service security: A qualitative assessment of the electricity system in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 443-456.
    5. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    6. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    7. Abdullah, Fahad Bin & Iqbal, Rizwan & Hyder, Syed Irfan & Jawaid, Mohammad, 2020. "Energy security indicators for Pakistan: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Adebola Solarin, Solarin & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and the role of globalization in selected African countries," MPRA Paper 69859, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2016.
    9. John A. Paravantis, 2019. "Dimensions, Components and Metrics of Energy Security: Review and Synthesis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 38-52, October-D.
    10. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    11. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2016. "A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 326-343.
    12. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    13. Erahman, Qodri Febrilian & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Sudibandriyo, Mahmud & Hidayatno, Akhmad, 2016. "An assessment of Indonesia's energy security index and comparison with seventy countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 364-376.
    14. Evgeny Lisin & Wadim Strielkowski & Veronika Chernova & Alena Fomina, 2018. "Assessment of the Territorial Energy Security in the Context of Energy Systems Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Aida Sy & Tony Tinker & Abdelkader Derbali & Lamia Jamel, 2016. "Economic growth, financial development, trade openness, and CO 2 emissions in European countries," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 155-179.
    16. Tete, Komlan H.S. & Soro, Y.M. & Sidibé, S.S. & Jones, Rory V., 2023. "Assessing energy security within the electricity sector in the West African economic and monetary union: Inter-country performances and trends analysis with policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Moubarak, Mohamed & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Carbon dioxide emissions and growth of the manufacturing sector: Evidence for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 830-837.
    19. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2015. "Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth: A Moral Dilemma," MPRA Paper 67422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Saboori, Behnaz & Sapri, Maimunah & bin Baba, Maizan, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)'s transport sector: A fully modified bi-directional relationship approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 150-161.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4731-:d:411939. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.