IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i14p3592-d383578.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Kernel ELM and Variational Mode Decomposition for Probabilistic PV Power Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaomei Wu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Chun Sing Lai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
    Brunel Institute of Power Systems, Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Brunel University London, London UB8 3PH, UK
    School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK)

  • Chenchen Bai

    (Department of Mathematics, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Loi Lei Lai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Qi Zhang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
    Zhaoqing Power Supply Bureau, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Zhaoqing 526060, China)

  • Bo Liu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China)

Abstract

A probabilistic prediction interval (PI) model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and a kernel extreme learning machine using the firefly algorithm (FA-KELM) is presented to tackle the problem of photovoltaic (PV) power for intra-day-ahead prediction. Firstly, considering the non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of a PV power output sequence, the decomposition of the original PV power output series is carried out using VMD. Secondly, to further improve the prediction accuracy, KELM is established for each decomposed component and the firefly algorithm is introduced to optimize the penalty factor and kernel parameter. Finally, the point predicted value is obtained through the summation of predicted results of each component and then using the nonlinear kernel density estimation to fit it. The cubic spline interpolation algorithm is applied to obtain the shortest confidence interval. Results from practical cases show that this probabilistic prediction interval could achieve higher accuracy as compared with other prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaomei Wu & Chun Sing Lai & Chenchen Bai & Loi Lei Lai & Qi Zhang & Bo Liu, 2020. "Optimal Kernel ELM and Variational Mode Decomposition for Probabilistic PV Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:14:p:3592-:d:383578
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/14/3592/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/14/3592/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. da Silva Fonseca Junior, Joao Gari & Oozeki, Takashi & Ohtake, Hideaki & Shimose, Ken-ichi & Takashima, Takumi & Ogimoto, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Regional forecasts and smoothing effect of photovoltaic power generation in Japan: An approach with principal component analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 403-413.
    2. Shrivastava, Nitin Anand & Lohia, Kunal & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan, 2016. "A multiobjective framework for wind speed prediction interval forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P2), pages 903-910.
    3. Yang, Xiuyuan & Xu, Minglu & Xu, Shouchen & Han, Xiaojuan, 2017. "Day-ahead forecasting of photovoltaic output power with similar cloud space fusion based on incomplete historical data mining," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 683-696.
    4. Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Mohammadi, Kasra & Yee, Por Lip & Petković, Dalibor & Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2015. "A comparative evaluation for identifying the suitability of extreme learning machine to predict horizontal global solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1031-1042.
    5. Trapero, Juan R., 2016. "Calculation of solar irradiation prediction intervals combining volatility and kernel density estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 266-274.
    6. Taylor, James W. & Jeon, Jooyoung, 2015. "Forecasting wind power quantiles using conditional kernel estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 370-379.
    7. De Giorgi, M.G. & Malvoni, M. & Congedo, P.M., 2016. "Comparison of strategies for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on hybrid group method of data handling networks and least square support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 360-373.
    8. Prema, V. & Rao, K. Uma, 2015. "Development of statistical time series models for solar power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 100-109.
    9. De Felice, Matteo & Petitta, Marcello & Ruti, Paolo M., 2015. "Short-term predictability of photovoltaic production over Italy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 197-204.
    10. Lai, Chun Sing & Jia, Youwei & Lai, Loi Lei & Xu, Zhao & McCulloch, Malcolm D. & Wong, Kit Po, 2017. "A comprehensive review on large-scale photovoltaic system with applications of electrical energy storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 439-451.
    11. Barbieri, Florian & Rajakaruna, Sumedha & Ghosh, Arindam, 2017. "Very short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with cloud modeling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 242-263.
    12. Zheng Liu & Xin Liu & Kan Wang & Zhongwei Liang & José A.F.O. Correia & Abílio M.P. De Jesus, 2019. "GA-BP Neural Network-Based Strain Prediction in Full-Scale Static Testing of Wind Turbine Blades," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Chandel, S.S., 2017. "Identification of relevant input variables for prediction of 1-minute time-step photovoltaic module power using Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression Models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 955-969.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keda Pan & Changhong Xie & Chun Sing Lai & Dongxiao Wang & Loi Lei Lai, 2020. "Photovoltaic Output Power Estimation and Baseline Prediction Approach for a Residential Distribution Network with Behind-the-Meter Systems," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Xinghua Wang & Fucheng Zhong & Yilin Xu & Xixian Liu & Zezhong Li & Jianan Liu & Zhuoli Zhao, 2023. "Extraction and Joint Method of PV–Load Typical Scenes Considering Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Xinyue Fu & Zhongkai Feng & Xinru Yao & Wenjie Liu, 2023. "A Novel Twin Support Vector Regression Model for Wind Speed Time-Series Interval Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Li, Guohui & Yin, Shibo & Yang, Hong, 2022. "A novel crude oil prices forecasting model based on secondary decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    5. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    6. Xiaomei Wu & Songjun Jiang & Chun Sing Lai & Zhuoli Zhao & Loi Lei Lai, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Decomposition and Combined Deep Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Yamin Shen & Yuxuan Ma & Simin Deng & Chiou-Jye Huang & Ping-Huan Kuo, 2021. "An Ensemble Model based on Deep Learning and Data Preprocessing for Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Kaitong Wu & Xiangang Peng & Zilu Li & Wenbo Cui & Haoliang Yuan & Chun Sing Lai & Loi Lei Lai, 2022. "A Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method Combining a Deep Learning Model with Trend Feature Extraction and Feature Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Lingwei & Liu, Zhaokun & Shen, Junnan & Wu, Chenxi, 2018. "Very short-term maximum Lyapunov exponent forecasting tool for distributed photovoltaic output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1128-1139.
    2. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    3. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    4. Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Hazlie Mokhlis & Ziyad M. Almohaimeed & Munir Azam Muhammad & Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin & Rizwan Akram & Muhammad Majid Hussain, 2022. "An Hour-Ahead PV Power Forecasting Method Based on an RNN-LSTM Model for Three Different PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join & Cyril Voyant, 2018. "Prediction bands for solar energy: New short-term time series forecasting techniques," Post-Print hal-01736518, HAL.
    6. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    7. Makade, Rahul G. & Chakrabarti, Siddharth & Jamil, Basharat & Sakhale, C.N., 2020. "Estimation of global solar radiation for the tropical wet climatic region of India: A theory of experimentation approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2044-2059.
    8. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    9. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    10. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    11. Alexandru Pîrjan & Simona-Vasilica Oprea & George Căruțașu & Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu & Adela Bâra & Cristina Coculescu, 2017. "Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-36, October.
    12. Mojtaba Qolipour & Ali Mostafaeipour & Mohammad Saidi-Mehrabad & Hamid R Arabnia, 2019. "Prediction of wind speed using a new Grey-extreme learning machine hybrid algorithm: A case study," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(1), pages 44-62, February.
    13. Weiwu Feng & Da Yang & Wenxue Du & Qiang Li, 2023. "In Situ Structural Health Monitoring of Full-Scale Wind Turbine Blades in Operation Based on Stereo Digital Image Correlation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Ma, Chao & Liu, Zhao, 2022. "Water-surface photovoltaics: Performance, utilization, and interactions with water eco-environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    15. Zheng Lu & Yunfei Chen & Qiaoqiao Fan, 2021. "Study on Feasibility of Photovoltaic Power to Grid Parity in China Based on LCOE," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    17. Kanwal, S. & Khan, B. & Ali, S.M. & Mehmood, C.A., 2018. "Gaussian process regression based inertia emulation and reserve estimation for grid interfaced photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 865-875.
    18. Àlex Alonso & Jordi de la Hoz & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Pep Salas & José Matas, 2020. "A Comprehensive Model for the Design of a Microgrid under Regulatory Constraints Using Synthetical Data Generation and Stochastic Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Awan, Ahmed Bilal & Zubair, Muhammad & Chandra Mouli, Kotturu V.V., 2020. "Design, optimization and performance comparison of solar tower and photovoltaic power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    20. Qolipour, Mojtaba & Mostafaeipour, Ali & Tousi, Omid Mohseni, 2017. "Techno-economic feasibility of a photovoltaic-wind power plant construction for electric and hydrogen production: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 113-123.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:14:p:3592-:d:383578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.