IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i24p4815-d299027.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Power-Forecasting Method for Geographically Distributed PV Power Systems using Their Previous Datasets

Author

Listed:
  • Yosui Miyazaki

    (Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda, Chiba 278-8510, Japan)

  • Yusuke Kameda

    (Graduate School of Engineering, Tokyo University of Science, 6-3-1 Niijuku, Katsushika-ku, Tokyo 125-8585, Japan)

  • Junji Kondoh

    (Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda, Chiba 278-8510, Japan)

Abstract

The number of photovoltaic (PV) power systems being installed worldwide has been increasing. This has resulted in maintenance of an adequate balance between demand and supply becoming a great concern for power system operators. Forecasting PV power outputs is a promising countermeasure that has been garnering significant interest. Conventional methods for achieving this often use learning methods, such as neural networks and support vector regression. In contrast, this paper proposes a short-term power-forecasting method for geographically distributed PV systems that uses only their previous output power data. In the proposed method, first, the ratio of the power generation output to the maximum power output value for each observation instance in a designated period for each PV system at a certain date and time is obtained. Then, the future geographical distribution of the ratio is predicted from the temporal change (motion) of the preceding distribution. Finally, the predicted ratio is reconverted into the power output to perform short-term power forecasting. The results of total PV output power prediction in the Kanto area of Japan indicate that the proposed method has an average mean absolute percentage error of 4.23% and root mean square error of 0.69 kW, which verifies its efficacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yosui Miyazaki & Yusuke Kameda & Junji Kondoh, 2019. "A Power-Forecasting Method for Geographically Distributed PV Power Systems using Their Previous Datasets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4815-:d:299027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/24/4815/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/24/4815/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weiliang Liu & Changliang Liu & Yongjun Lin & Liangyu Ma & Feng Xiong & Jintuo Li, 2018. "Ultra-Short-Term Forecast of Photovoltaic Output Power under Fog and Haze Weather," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Fei Wang & Zengqiang Mi & Shi Su & Hongshan Zhao, 2012. "Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Elmira Jamei & Gokul Sidarth Thirunavukkarasu & Tey Kok Soon & Michael Mortimer & Ben Horan & Alex Stojcevski & Saad Mekhilef, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting of the Output Power of a Building-Integrated Photovoltaic System Using a Metaheuristic Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taiki Kure & Haruka Danil Tsuchiya & Yusuke Kameda & Hiroki Yamamoto & Daisuke Kodaira & Junji Kondoh, 2022. "Parameter Evaluation in Motion Estimation for Forecasting Multiple Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Aleksander Radovan & Viktor Šunde & Danijel Kučak & Željko Ban, 2021. "Solar Irradiance Forecast Based on Cloud Movement Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-25, June.
    3. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2020. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Yu, Hanxin & Chen, Shanlin & Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Ding, Yueming & Cui, Rongxi & Zhao, Xin, 2024. "Self-attention mechanism to enhance the generalizability of data-driven time-series prediction: A case study of intra-hour power forecasting of urban distributed photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
    5. Hiroki Yamamoto & Junji Kondoh & Daisuke Kodaira, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Features on Probabilistic Modeling of Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Daisuke Kodaira & Kazuki Tsukazaki & Taiki Kure & Junji Kondoh, 2021. "Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md. Nazmul Hasan & Rafia Nishat Toma & Abdullah-Al Nahid & M M Manjurul Islam & Jong-Myon Kim, 2019. "Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grid Systems: A CNN-LSTM Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Javier López Gómez & Ana Ogando Martínez & Francisco Troncoso Pastoriza & Lara Febrero Garrido & Enrique Granada Álvarez & José Antonio Orosa García, 2020. "Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks and Numerical Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Mohanty, Sthitapragyan & Patra, Prashanta K. & Sahoo, Sudhansu S. & Mohanty, Asit, 2017. "Forecasting of solar energy with application for a growing economy like India: Survey and implication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 539-553.
    4. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2019. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for a Single Household Based on Convolution Neural Networks Using Data Augmentation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Sepehr Moalem & Roya M. Ahari & Ghazanfar Shahgholian & Majid Moazzami & Seyed Mohammad Kazemi, 2022. "Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Steel Complex Micro-Grid Electricity Supply Chain—A Coupled Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Bulent Haznedar & Huseyin Cagan Kilinc & Furkan Ozkan & Adem Yurtsever, 2023. "Streamflow forecasting using a hybrid LSTM-PSO approach: the case of Seyhan Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 681-701, May.
    8. Kanitta Yarak & Apichon Witayangkurn & Kunnaree Kritiyutanont & Chomchanok Arunplod & Ryosuke Shibasaki, 2021. "Oil Palm Tree Detection and Health Classification on High-Resolution Imagery Using Deep Learning," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Wu, Jingyao & Zhao, Zhibin & Sun, Chuang & Yan, Ruqiang & Chen, Xuefeng, 2021. "Learning from Class-imbalanced Data with a Model-Agnostic Framework for Machine Intelligent Diagnosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Ying-Yi Hong & Ti-Hsuan Yu & Ching-Yun Liu, 2013. "Hour-Ahead Wind Speed and Power Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Pronti, A. & Zoboli, R., 2024. "Something new under the sun. A spatial econometric analysis of the adoption of photovoltaic systems in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Chao-Rong Chen & Unit Three Kartini, 2017. "k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    16. Yusen Wang & Wenlong Liao & Yuqing Chang, 2018. "Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Short-Term Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    17. McCandless, T.C. & Haupt, S.E. & Young, G.S., 2016. "A regime-dependent artificial neural network technique for short-range solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 351-359.
    18. Stanislaw Osowski & Robert Szmurlo & Krzysztof Siwek & Tomasz Ciechulski, 2022. "Neural Approaches to Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems—A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    19. Yajing Gao & Jing Zhu & Huaxin Cheng & Fushen Xue & Qing Xie & Peng Li, 2016. "Study of Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecast Based on Error Calibration under Typical Climate Categories," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-15, July.
    20. Avraam Tsantekidis & Nikolaos Passalis & Anastasios Tefas & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2018. "Using Deep Learning for price prediction by exploiting stationary limit order book features," Papers 1810.09965, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4815-:d:299027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.