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Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm

Author

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  • Happy Aprillia

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan
    Department of Industrial and Process Engineering, Kalimantan Institute of Technology, Balikpapan, East Kalimantan, Timur 76127, Indonesia)

  • Hong-Tzer Yang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan)

  • Chao-Ming Huang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Kun Shan University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan)

Abstract

The high utilization of renewable energy to manage climate change and provide green energy requires short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting. In this paper, a novel forecasting strategy that combines a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a salp swarm algorithm (SSA) is proposed to forecast PV power output. First, the historical PV power data and associated weather information are classified into five weather types, such as rainy, heavy cloudy, cloudy, light cloudy and sunny. The CNN classification is then used to determine the prediction for the next day’s weather type. Five models of CNN regression are established to accommodate the prediction for different weather types. Each CNN regression is optimized using a salp swarm algorithm (SSA) to tune the best parameter. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, comparisons were made to the SSA based support vector machine (SVM-SSA) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM-SSA) methods. The proposed method was tested on a PV power generation system with a 500 kWp capacity located in south Taiwan. The results showed that the proposed CNN-SSA could accommodate the actual generation pattern better than the SVM-SSA and LSTM-SSA methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2020. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:8:p:1879-:d:344612
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    5. Chao-Ming Huang & Shin-Ju Chen & Sung-Pei Yang, 2022. "A Parameter Estimation Method for a Photovoltaic Power Generation System Based on a Two-Diode Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang & Happy Aprillia & Che-Yuan Hsu & Jie-Lun Zhong & Nguyễn H. Phương, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Method with the RNN Meta-Learner for Short-Term PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Muhannad Alaraj & Ibrahim Alsaidan & Astitva Kumar & Mohammad Rizwan & Majid Jamil, 2023. "Advanced Intelligent Approach for Solar PV Power Forecasting Using Meteorological Parameters for Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    8. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Cai Tao & Junjie Lu & Jianxun Lang & Xiaosheng Peng & Kai Cheng & Shanxu Duan, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Feature Selection and Bias Compensation–LSTM Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Andi A. H. Lateko & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2022. "Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Regression-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    11. Andrei M. Tudose & Irina I. Picioroaga & Dorian O. Sidea & Constantin Bulac, 2021. "Solving Single- and Multi-Objective Optimal Reactive Power Dispatch Problems Using an Improved Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Dukhwan Yu & Seowoo Lee & Sangwon Lee & Wonik Choi & Ling Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Satellite Images," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Senthil Prabu Ramalingam & Prabhakar Karthikeyan Shanmugam, 2022. "Hardware Implementation of a Home Energy Management System Using Remodeled Sperm Swarm Optimization (RMSSO) Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    14. Duan, Jikai & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Xiangyue & Wang, Wenpeng & Ma, Lei & Chen, Bolong, 2023. "A multistep short-term solar radiation forecasting model using fully convolutional neural networks and chaotic aquila optimization combining WRF-Solar model results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    15. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2021. "Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.

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