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Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Satellite Images

Author

Listed:
  • Dukhwan Yu

    (Department of Information and Communication Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea)

  • Seowoo Lee

    (Power and Industrial Systems R&D Center, Hyosung Corporation, Anyang 14080, Korea)

  • Sangwon Lee

    (Department of Information and Communication Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea)

  • Wonik Choi

    (Department of Information and Communication Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea)

  • Ling Liu

    (College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA)

Abstract

As the relative importance of renewable energy in electric power systems increases, the prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has become a crucial technology, for improving stability in the operation of next-generation power systems, such as microgrid and virtual power plants (VPP). In order to improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting, a fair amount of research has been applied to weather forecast data (to a learning process). Despite these efforts, the problems of forecasting PV power generation remains challenging since existing methods show limited accuracy due to inappropriate cloud amount forecast data, which are strongly correlated with PV power generation. To address this problem, we propose a PV power forecasting model, including a cloud amount forecasting network trained with satellite images. In addition, our proposed model adopts convolutional self-attention to effectively capture historical features, and thus acquire helpful information from weather forecasts. To show the efficacy of the proposed cloud amount forecast network, we conduct extensive experiments on PV power generation forecasting with and without the cloud amount forecast network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of our proposed prediction model, combined with the cloud amount forecast network, are reduced by 22.5% compared to the model without the cloud amount forecast network.

Suggested Citation

  • Dukhwan Yu & Seowoo Lee & Sangwon Lee & Wonik Choi & Ling Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Satellite Images," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:24:p:6603-:d:462005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dukhwan Yu & Wonik Choi & Myoungsoo Kim & Ling Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Hourly Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Convolutional Self-Attention Based Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2020. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Alfredo Nespoli & Emanuele Ogliari & Sonia Leva & Alessandro Massi Pavan & Adel Mellit & Vanni Lughi & Alberto Dolara, 2019. "Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting: A Comparison of the Most Effective Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Nosratabadi, Seyyed Mostafa & Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah & Gholipour, Eskandar, 2017. "A comprehensive review on microgrid and virtual power plant concepts employed for distributed energy resources scheduling in power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 341-363.
    6. Jaeik Jeong & Hongseok Kim, 2019. "Multi-Site Photovoltaic Forecasting Exploiting Space-Time Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    7. Sunghyeon Choi & Jin Hur, 2020. "An Ensemble Learner-Based Bagging Model Using Past Output Data for Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel López Santos & Xela García-Santiago & Fernando Echevarría Camarero & Gonzalo Blázquez Gil & Pablo Carrasco Ortega, 2022. "Application of Temporal Fusion Transformer for Day-Ahead PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Martina Radicioni & Valentina Lucaferri & Francesco De Lia & Antonino Laudani & Roberto Lo Presti & Gabriele Maria Lozito & Francesco Riganti Fulginei & Riccardo Schioppo & Mario Tucci, 2021. "Power Forecasting of a Photovoltaic Plant Located in ENEA Casaccia Research Center," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Elena Collino & Dario Ronzio, 2021. "Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, February.
    4. Cai Tao & Junjie Lu & Jianxun Lang & Xiaosheng Peng & Kai Cheng & Shanxu Duan, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Feature Selection and Bias Compensation–LSTM Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.
    5. Tamás Orosz & Anton Rassõlkin & Pedro Arsénio & Peter Poór & Daniil Valme & Ádám Sleisz, 2024. "Current Challenges in Operation, Performance, and Maintenance of Photovoltaic Panels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Franko Pandžić & Tomislav Capuder, 2023. "Advances in Short-Term Solar Forecasting: A Review and Benchmark of Machine Learning Methods and Relevant Data Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, December.

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