IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i7p1900-d159085.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty Analysis of Weather Forecast Data for Cooling Load Forecasting Based on the Monte Carlo Method

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Zhao

    (Tianjin Key Lab of Indoor Air Environmental Quality Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

  • Yaoqi Duan

    (Tianjin Key Lab of Indoor Air Environmental Quality Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

  • Xiaojuan Liu

    (Tianjin Key Lab of Indoor Air Environmental Quality Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

Abstract

Recently, the cooling load forecasting for the short-term has received increasing attention in the field of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), which is conducive to the HVAC system operation control. The load forecasting based on weather forecast data is an effective approach. The meteorological parameters are used as the key inputs of the prediction model, of which the accuracy has a great influence on the prediction loads. Obviously, there are errors between the weather forecast data and the actual weather data, but most of the existing studies ignored this issue. In order to deal with the uncertainty of weather forecast data scientifically, this paper proposes an effective approach based on the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) to process weather forecast data by using the 24-h-ahead Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for load prediction as an example. The data-preprocessing method based on MCM makes the forecasting results closer to the actual load than those without process, which reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of load prediction from 11.54% to 10.92%. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it was found that among the selected weather parameters, the factor that had the greatest impact on the prediction results was the 1-h-ahead temperature T( h –1) at the prediction moment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Zhao & Yaoqi Duan & Xiaojuan Liu, 2018. "Uncertainty Analysis of Weather Forecast Data for Cooling Load Forecasting Based on the Monte Carlo Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1900-:d:159085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1900/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/7/1900/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pai, Ping-Feng & Lin, Chih-Sheng, 2005. "A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 497-505, December.
    2. Jiang, Yingni, 2010. "Generation of typical meteorological year for different climates of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1946-1953.
    3. Petersen, Steffen & Bundgaard, Katrine Wieck, 2014. "The effect of weather forecast uncertainty on a predictive control concept for building systems operation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 311-321.
    4. Mohandes, M.A. & Halawani, T.O. & Rehman, S. & Hussain, Ahmed A., 2004. "Support vector machines for wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 939-947.
    5. Wan Mohd Nazi, Wan Iman & Royapoor, Mohammad & Wang, Yaodong & Roskilly, Anthony Paul, 2017. "Office building cooling load reduction using thermal analysis method – A case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1574-1584.
    6. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eva Lucas Segarra & Germán Ramos Ruiz & Vicente Gutiérrez González & Antonis Peppas & Carlos Fernández Bandera, 2020. "Impact Assessment for Building Energy Models Using Observed vs. Third-Party Weather Data Sets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    2. Joanna Piotrowska-Woroniak & Krzysztof Cieśliński & Grzegorz Woroniak & Jonas Bielskus, 2022. "The Impact of Thermo-Modernization and Forecast Regulation on the Reduction of Thermal Energy Consumption and Reduction of Pollutant Emissions into the Atmosphere on the Example of Prefabricated Build," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Zhao, Jing & Duan, Yaoqi & Liu, Xiaojuan, 2019. "Study on the policy of replacing coal-fired boilers with gas-fired boilers for central heating based on the 3E system and the TOPSIS method: A case in Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Joanna Kajewska-Szkudlarek & Jan Bylicki & Justyna Stańczyk & Paweł Licznar, 2021. "Neural Approach in Short-Term Outdoor Temperature Prediction for Application in HVAC Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Liu, Xiangfei & Ren, Mifeng & Yang, Zhile & Yan, Gaowei & Guo, Yuanjun & Cheng, Lan & Wu, Chengke, 2022. "A multi-step predictive deep reinforcement learning algorithm for HVAC control systems in smart buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    6. Prataviera, Enrico & Vivian, Jacopo & Lombardo, Giulia & Zarrella, Angelo, 2022. "Evaluation of the impact of input uncertainty on urban building energy simulations using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    7. Eva Lucas Segarra & Hu Du & Germán Ramos Ruiz & Carlos Fernández Bandera, 2019. "Methodology for the Quantification of the Impact of Weather Forecasts in Predictive Simulation Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2010. "Application of chaotic ant swarm optimization in electric load forecasting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5830-5839, October.
    2. Wei-Chiang Hong & Yucheng Dong & Chien-Yuan Lai & Li-Yueh Chen & Shih-Yung Wei, 2011. "SVR with Hybrid Chaotic Immune Algorithm for Seasonal Load Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    4. Kamaladdin Fataliyev & Aneesh Chivukula & Mukesh Prasad & Wei Liu, 2021. "Stock Market Analysis with Text Data: A Review," Papers 2106.12985, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    5. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    6. Dimitrios Kartsonakis Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2021. "Volatility Forecasting using Hybrid GARCH Neural Network Models: The Case of the Italian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 49-60.
    7. Xiao Liu & Xu Lai & Jin Zou, 2017. "A New MCP Method of Wind Speed Temporal Interpolation and Extrapolation Considering Wind Speed Mixed Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    9. Nazarian, Rafik & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil & Amiri, Ashkan, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: A Forecast Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 46786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Daniel Villanueva & Kishore Kulat, 2018. "A Novel and Alternative Approach for Direct and Indirect Wind-Power Prediction Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Talaat, M. & Hatata, A.Y. & Alsayyari, Abdulaziz S. & Alblawi, Adel, 2020. "A smart load management system based on the grasshopper optimization algorithm using the under-frequency load shedding approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    13. Chong, W.T. & Gwani, M. & Shamshirband, S. & Muzammil, W.K. & Tan, C.J. & Fazlizan, A. & Poh, S.C. & Petković, Dalibor & Wong, K.H., 2016. "Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology for performance investigation of a power-augmented vertical axis wind turbine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 630-636.
    14. Da Liu & Kun Sun & Han Huang & Pingzhou Tang, 2018. "Monthly Load Forecasting Based on Economic Data by Decomposition Integration Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Eva Lucas Segarra & Germán Ramos Ruiz & Vicente Gutiérrez González & Antonis Peppas & Carlos Fernández Bandera, 2020. "Impact Assessment for Building Energy Models Using Observed vs. Third-Party Weather Data Sets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    16. Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Wei, Liang-Ying, 2014. "A novel time-series model based on empirical mode decomposition for forecasting TAIEX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 136-141.
    17. Li, Honglian & Huang, Jin & Hu, Yao & Wang, Shangyu & Liu, Jing & Yang, Liu, 2021. "A new TMY generation method based on the entropy-based TOPSIS theory for different climatic zones in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    18. Li, Chong & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Hui & Lu, Yuzheng & Li, Dongdong, 2020. "Techno-economic performance study of stand-alone wind/diesel/battery hybrid system with different battery technologies in the cold region of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    20. Cenk Ufuk Yıldıran & Abdurrahman Fettahoğlu, 2017. "Forecasting USDTRY rate by ARIMA method," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1335968-133, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:7:p:1900-:d:159085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.